What will be the fate of Hungarian minorities in Romania? One expert weighs in on presidential election

While many conservatives are celebrating the victory of George Simion in the first round of presidential elections in Romania, Hungary is far from happy, namely due to Simenon’s views on the Hungarian minority in the country.

Zsolt Pászkán, a Romania expert at the Hungarian Institute of Foreign Affairs, gave his opinion to Hirado.hu on the candidates’ chances and the future of Hungarian minorities.

He noted that two politicians critical of the system have made it to the second round of the repeated Romanian presidential election. On May 18, “the extremist George Simion, known for his anti-Hungarianism and the chairman of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), and Nicusor Dan, the independent mayor of Bucharest, will decide who will become the new president of Romania.”

Simion, the president of the AUR, won the first round of the Romanian presidential election, which was repeated on Sunday. Hirado refers to him as an “extremist politician known for his anti-Hungarian views,” and worries that he won 40.96 percent of the valid votes.

He received more than half a million votes from Romanians living in the diaspora, who supported him by 61 percent. Simion’s opponent will be Nicusor Dan, the independent mayor of Bucharest, who came in second with 20.99 percent of the votes. The second round of the presidential election will be held on May 18, meaning that within two weeks we will know who the next president of Romania will be.

Kelemen Hunor, president of the Hungarian Democratic Alliance of Romania (RMDSZ), has also drawn attention to the stakes of the election, as he fears that the rights of Transylvanian Hungarians would be significantly violated if Simion were elected.

He said “difficult times will await Transylvanian Hungarians under an AUR president whose party constantly says: there is no need for Hungarian schools and the use of the Hungarian language in public administration.”

Romania expert Zsolt Pászkán agrees that Simion truly poses the greatest threat to Hungarian communities. He recalled that the AUR president has had several anti-Hungarian actions, some of which he has only retracted in the last year and a half.

“He tried to restrain himself because of his international ambitions, as he is the vice-president of the ECR, where, for example, Meloni’s party is also present. It would not have gone well for Simion if he had continued the confrontational and Hungarian-slanderous behavior he has shown since 2019,” Pászkán said. 

The expert added that Simion had not previously dealt with Hungarian issues, so it is also possible that he started to thematize them only for political gain. Although he says Simion is avoiding any extreme statements for the time being, the signs are not in favor of the Hungarians in Transylvania.

When asked how minority rights could be affected if Simion wins, Zsolt Pászkán said that presidential powers alone do not allow, for example, the closure of Hungarian schools or the liquidation of Hungarian-language public administration. According to the expert, for such measures, the AUR president would need a parliamentary majority, which he currently does not have.

“The question is whether the balance of power in parliament will change. If the government coalition weakens and they switch en masse to Simion, the way could be opened to the formation of a majority that would pose a real threat.”

The expert believes that if Simion were the new Romanian president and the current coalition remained, the anti-Hungarian measures would certainly not pass in the first round. At the same time, the president has the right to refuse to promulgate a law, which he can do only once. 

“This means that Simion cannot take direct action without a parliamentary majority, but he could significantly slow down progress on minority rights.”

Hunor Kelemen was more blunt about his concerns in a video message posted on Facebook: “I ask everyone who trusts me, who does not want Simion to be the next president of Romania and the AUR to govern, to put aside all arguments, counter-arguments, let’s put aside all reservations, and support Nicusor Dan in the second round.”

The EU is silent when it comes to the Hungarian minority

Romania has been a member of the EU since 2007, so it should basically respect the agreements related to it. “If Romania were to commit a violation of minority rights, the European Union would not intervene, especially not in the case of the Hungarian community,” added Zsolt Pászkán. He recalled that the EU did not intervene when those who had dual Hungarian citizenship were massively stripped of their Slovak citizenship in Felvidék.

According to the expert, the European Union would only intervene if Simion were to engage in open confrontation on issues important to Brussels, such as supporting Ukraine.

He said that in the event of an EU conflict, Romania might even need the support of the Hungarian government in the future. And possible cooperation could even mitigate anti-Hungarian views, as in the case of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Simion would have more room for maneuver in foreign policy, so he could even generate real conflicts in this area. “A situation like that between Duda and Tusk in Poland could develop – only here the two sides would pull in opposite directions on the issue of Ukraine.”

The president of the AUR openly sympathizes with the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, and according to press reports, he would even stop arms shipments to Ukraine. Zsolt Pászkán believes that this in itself would not significantly affect the war in Ukraine, since “a significant part of the supplies arrive via Poland.” 

However, Romania’s role is still crucial, as it could actually make it more difficult for Ukrainian agricultural products to reach the world market. At the same time, he emphasized that without a parliamentary majority, the future Romanian president will not be able to make independent decisions on minority rights and foreign policy issues.

Georgescu’s exclusion favored Simion

Based on the political balance of power, Simion will start the second round from an advantageous position. Zsolt Pászkán noted that the exclusion of Călin Georgescu significantly contributed to the success of the AUR president. 

“Simion received almost 3.9 million votes alone in the first repeated round, while previously he received 3.4 million together with Georgescu. This is a serious increase,” he added.

He said that based on the numbers, the AUR president could win the second round with up to 800,000 votes. “The opponent would have to overcome this disadvantage, which would require at least 2-3 million new voters. And that doesn’t seem likely.”

According to Zsolt Pászkán, the second round may be determined by how successful the mobilization against Simion is. 

“Nicusor Dan has not been a charismatic politician so far, so the question is how much power they can mobilize against him. Simion is now in an advantageous position. He has to make a mistake to lose the election. If the same people go to vote who went last weekend, then Simion will most likely win the presidential election,” Pászkán concluded.

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