Heating bills for Hungarian households could rise by as much as three and a half times if the European Union moves forward with a full ban on Russian natural gas imports, according to a new report by the Századvég Institute, as cited by Magyar Hírlap.
The economic research group estimates such a move would impose nearly HUF 1,100 billion (approximately €2.8 billion) in additional annual costs on Hungary, putting severe pressure on both the country’s energy system and its citizens.
According to Századvég, their calculations — based on publicly available domestic and international energy data — show that a total ban on Russian energy imports would result in a doubling of gas prices and heightened volatility on European energy markets. This would not only harm the EU’s competitiveness but also destabilize Hungary’s long-standing utility bill reduction program, which currently ensures some of the lowest heating costs in Europe for Hungarian families.
Earlier this month, the European Commission published a roadmap outlining its intention to wean European nations off Russian gas before a wholesale ban came into effect by the end of 2027.
Fico: “I refuse to commit suicide. This is simply economic suicide.”
Slovak PM Robert Fico blasts an EU plan to halt imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027.
Fico says a “new iron curtain” is being built between East and West. pic.twitter.com/8dj2G5uqoD
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“No more will we permit Russia to weaponize energy against us… No more will we indirectly help fill up the [Kremlin’s] war chests,” European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen told reporters.
The move, however, faces stiff opposition from several nations still heavily reliant on Russia for their imports and unsure of where alternative energy sources will be found for an acceptable price.
In addition to Hungary, Slovakia is also holding firm against the plans. Prime Minister Robert Fico said earlier this week he would veto the move in the European Council if need be.
“A halt of gas supplies will cause instability. Our petrochemical plants were set up to use Russian oil for oil refining, and the shutdown may cause technological problems. I hope that our EU partners will learn about this when legal acts are adopted,” Fico said.
“If it is necessary for all 27 countries to agree, we will use our veto power,” he added.
Currently, Hungary imports around 4.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually through a long-term supply contract, which covered more than half of the country’s total gas consumption last year.
Replacing this volume on international markets, the institute notes, would cost Hungary an estimated HUF 660 billion more. When including Russian gas delivered to Hungary by alternative routes, the shortfall reaches 7.5 billion cubic meters, raising the potential total impact to HUF 1,100 billion annually.
The institute highlighted that Hungarian households today pay an average of HUF 176,900 (around €435) per year for heating, thanks to state price regulations. Without these protections and based on current exchange rates, that figure would nearly double to HUF 355,310. If Russian gas were banned outright, average heating costs could skyrocket to HUF 625,000 (€1,540) — more than three and a half times the current average.
Századvég recalled that the EU’s reliance on Russian gas fell from 40 percent before the war in Ukraine to below 20 percent in 2023. This dramatic shift led to a doubling of gas prices on the Dutch energy exchange. Under the European Commission’s new strategy, prices could rise from €35 to €70 per megawatt hour, according to the think tank’s projections. They warned, however, that actual increases could be even steeper due to market instability triggered by supply shocks.
The report also emphasized the cumulative effect of EU sanctions on Hungarian households. Since 2022, Századvég estimates that higher energy prices, loss of export markets, and increased borrowing costs have drained HUF 2.2 million (€5,430) from the average Hungarian household. The direct financial cost of Ukraine’s accelerated EU accession process would add HUF 458,000 annually, while a ban on Russian gas could tack on another HUF 448,000.
“Brussels’ three highest priority objectives — arming Ukraine, accelerating EU accession, and banning Russian energy — would impose unbearable burdens on Hungarian families,” the Századvég Institute concluded on its website.
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