Following German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s announcement that Ukraine can now strike Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons, including German weapons, one Hungarian analysts says he believe it could lead to the “mass death” of German soldiers.
In a special broadcast from Sárbogárd, the popular Hungarian news channel Ultrahang interviewed security policy expert György Nógrádi, who warned that this decision carries severe military, economic, and political consequences.
Nógrádi stated that Merz’s announcement “takes the war to a new level,” explaining that Germany and other Western allies will no longer impose range limitations on weapons provided to Ukraine. This means that Ukrainian forces could potentially target cities like Moscow.
The Hungarian expert highlighted this as a pivotal shift in German policy, asserting that “the only weapon that the previous government refused to hand over—the Taurus missiles—is now being handed over.” However, he expressed concern that these advanced systems are too complex for Ukrainian military personnel, potentially necessitating the deployment of German specialists, which “could lead to mass German deaths.”
Former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz notably refused to hand over Taurus missiles to Ukraine, also citing that German military personnel would have to be deployed with these missiles, which would have been a sharp escalation to the war.
Ultimately, if Ukraine does indeed have access to Taurus missiles, it remains unclear whether German troops will indeed be deployed with these systems. Ukrainian soldiers may have already been covertly trained. In addition, the long-range nature of these missile systems makes them difficult targets for Russian strikes. However, there is little doubt that these German-made missiles could mark a sharp escalation in the war.
According to Nógrádi, the conflict has only been getting worse in recent days, with Russia on the offensive and record numbers of drone and missile strikes. He noted a significant drop in the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses, which previously intercepted 80 to 90 percent of drones.
Notably, Russia is stepping up its production of drones and missiles, leaving Ukraine without enough missile interceptors to shoot them out of the sky. Russia’s cheaper missiles are going up against missile interceptors, which are more sophisticated and expensive, making for a poor mismatch in the conflict.
The West appears to be reacting to this by upping the ante against Russia, allowing Ukraine to, in turn, use missiles against Russian targets on Russian territory.
Of course, the risk of nuclear war always looms large in the background. Nógrádi said Merz’s statement implies a prolonged conflict, with German weapons and equipment continuing to flow into Ukraine. The Hungarian observed that NATO remains committed to avoiding direct confrontation with Russia, acknowledging the catastrophic potential of a nuclear conflict given that “Russia and the USA have approximately 6,000 nuclear warheads.”
There are numerous conflicting reports in regard to Russia’s capabilities in the war, but Nógrádi falls into the camp that believes Russia holds the advantage.
“There are 200,000 Russian-trained reservists behind the front lines. Ukraine has no significant reservists,” he said.
In conclusion, Nógrádi delivered a grim assessment: “This war is not coming to an end, it’s just starting to get really rough.”
Beyond the war, Nógrádi addressed the severe economic impacts, particularly for Germany. He argued that the foundation of German economic policy—cheap Russian raw materials combined with advanced German high-tech—has been “blown up.”
He suggested that Germany has “knocked itself out” economically by now purchasing Russian raw materials at significantly inflated prices through intermediaries like India or Norway.
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