White British people will become a minority in the UK population in less than 40 years, a report has predicted.
The population of white British people will fall from 73 per cent to 57 per cent by 2050, before becoming a minority by 2063, the research suggests.
Professor Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University analysed migration, birth and death rates, and calculated that by the end of the century, the white British share of the population – those who do not have an immigrant parent – could have dropped to a third.
His report predicts a sharp rise in the proportion of the UK population made up of foreign-born and second-generation immigrants, increasing from below 20 per cent to 33.5 per cent within the next 25 years.
It also forecasts a near three-times increase in the number of Muslims living in the UK, suggesting that almost one in five people living in Britain will be followers of Islam by the end of the century.
By the year 2100, the report expects 60 per cent of people living in the UK to have at least one immigrant parent.
Professor Goodwin, a political commentator, said his research, which was based on Office for National Statistics and census data, will ‘spark anxiety, concern and political opposition’ among voters who wish to ‘maintain the culture of the traditional majority’.
He added: ‘By the end of the current century, most of the people on these islands will not be able to trace their roots in this country back more than one or two generations.
‘This raises enormous questions about the capacity of our country and leaders to unify people around a shared sense of identity, values, ways of life, and culture, and avoid the very real risk of us becoming what Sir Keir Starmer referred to in May as ‘an island of strangers’.’
In the report titled ‘Demographic Change and the Future of the United Kingdom’, Professor Goodwin also warned of the UK’s ability to ‘absorb and manage this scale of demographic change’.
He said: ‘What these projections show is that the UK is currently on course to experience enormous and historically unprecedented changes in the composition of its population.’
Professor Goodwin’s projections were based on non-white ethnic groups having a higher fertility rate until the end of the century.
The fertility rate used was 1.39 for those born in the UK, 1.97 for foreign-born people. For Muslims it was 2.35, and for non-Muslims it was 1.54.
Official figures showed net long-term inflows were 431,000 in the year to December.
While this is less than 2023, when it stood at 860,000, it is still at historic highs.
Emigration rose by around 11 per cent to an estimated 517,000 for the year to December, up from 466,000 in the previous year.
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Meanwhile, the government is failing to control the flow of migrants crossing the Channel, with 1,200 arriving on Saturday in what was labelled ‘a day of shame’.
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But the total of arrivals for the year, 14,811, is the highest ever recorded for the first five months of a year since data was first recorded on Channel crossings in 2018.
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