A London academic has appealed to policymakers and military leaders to consider taking remedial action to minimise the impact of civil wars, which he warns have become a distinct possibility in Western nations.
Professor of War in the Modern World, David Betz of King’s College London, has claimed that many European countries now exhibit signs of being in a pre-civil war state. According to his research, there is a statistically significant chance of a war breaking out in the next five years in a Western state, and given Europe’s interconnected nature, it could spark similar conflicts in neighbouring nations.
Previously a relatively obscure figure, Betz has steadily picked up attention through 2025 for his warnings about the potential danger from the Balkanisation of British and other European nations. This week, he went further yet and said in conversation with documentary maker and former BBC presenter Andrew Gold that it now appears to be too late to actually prevent things getting “very much worse”, and urged decision-makers to act to at least cushion the blow.
In a chilling warning, the academic said, “I would probably avoid big cities. I would suggest you reduce your exposure to big cities if you are able.”
The coming violence, he believes, has been made inevitable by decades of government ineptitude and can’t be totally avoided. Betz asserted that only a strategy of minimisation remains. He said:
… there isn’t anything they can do, it’s baked in. We’re already past the tipping point, is my estimation… we are past the point at which there is a political offramp. We are past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem… almost every plausible way forward from here involves some kind of violence in my view.
Anything the government tries to do at this point… you can solve one kind of problem, but it will aggravate another kind of problem in doing so, and you get back to violence. {snip}
… “the bottom line is I don’t think there is now a political solution to this which takes the form of everything just working out OK after some period of difficulty. Things are bad now, but they are going to get very much worse. Hopefully after they will get better, but you will have to go through the period of very much worse before you get there.
{snip}
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