For the first time in almost two decades, Germany has a negative net immigration rate, according to a new graph out of Statista, based on data from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA).
Economist Géza Sebestyén, who heads up the Economic Policy Workshop at MCC in Budapest, took to Facebook to spell out how recent policy changes by the German government are behind the improvement, namely, significantly tightened border controls, suspended family reunification in several places, and stricter conditions for obtaining citizenship.
“Many are being refused before they can even apply,” he added
His post went on to state that the number of asylum applications has fallen by more than 30 percent. “New rules and faster border crossings have made Germany less accessible — even for those fleeing war and persecution.”
Refugees from Ukraine dropped by 75 percent in 2024, from over 1 million in 2023.
For migrants, rising housing costs, lack of space, and an overloaded bureaucracy also pose serious obstacles to building a new life.
Meanwhile, public sentiment is shifting fast and anti-immigration parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) are becoming more and more popular, putting increased pressure on the ruling coalition to change policy.
And yet, it is exactly its popularity that is also creating continued animosity against the party. Despite the AfD being the largest opposition party in Germany and leading in some polls after taking just under 21 percent of the vote in the February election, many are still pushing to ban it while also implementing some of its anti-immigration proposals.
The concern is that without the AfD maintaining its presence on the political chess board, the ruling coalition under Merz will once again cave to those advocating for more immigration.
However, these restrictions on immigration will do little to reverse overall demographic trends unless more sustained action is taken. Just this year, official data showed that one in four Germans now has a migration background.
The demographic changes are most pronounced amongst the youth, and the result is most acutely felt in Germany’s troubled school system, which features a soaring number of foreign children.
In Berlin, 40 percent of students do not speak German as their native language, and in cities like Hamburg, the majority of students have a migrant background. Overall, an astounding 38 percent of all children in elementary schools in Germany have migrant backgrounds.
Mayor of Tübingen Boris Palmer, a highly influential politician who left the Green Party to run as an independent, said last year that young people are dealing with the consequences of mass immigration, which is making them turn to right-wing parties.
“They experience what irregular migration means on a daily basis,” Palmer, who formerly served with the Greens but has since become independent, wrote on Facebook.
“Above all, the young men who have arrived alone are changing the living environment of young people. In the park, in the club, on the street, on the bus, at the train station, in the schoolyard,” he added.
His points are reflected in the data made available from the education system. Teachers in Berlin, for instance, required police intervention in the school system 5 times a day in 2023, with police interventions rising dramatically.
Palmer’s comments reveal that the demographic transformation are hitting the youth hardest of all, and it is not only the AfD raising concerns.
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