Thilo Sarrazin, the former Bundesbank board member whose 2010 book “Deutschland schafft sich ab” (“Germany Is Abolishing Itself”) sparked controversy, has returned to the spotlight with a revised edition of his bestseller — arguing that his original predictions about mass migration and demographic transformation in Germany have been dramatically surpassed by reality.
In an interview with Czech news outlet Echo24, Sarrazin reflected on his earlier work, noting that while he was broadly right in his projections, the scale and pace of immigration — particularly since the 2015 crisis — have outstripped his original calculations.
He noted that his demographic model had assumed annual net immigration of between 50,000 and 100,000 people, based on official forecasts at the time. In the decade since, however, Germany has averaged 500,000 new arrivals per year, a majority of whom come from outside the European Union and from predominantly Muslim-majority countries.
“Back then, I predicted that within a few decades, Germans would become a minority in their own homeland,” Sarrazin said. “But it will come much sooner.”
Originally a member of the center-left Social Democratic Party, Sarrazin was forced out of both the Bundesbank and the SPD after his book’s publication. Though accused by critics of xenophobia and fearmongering, he now argues that the data vindicates his warnings. Germany, he said, now has more foreign-born residents as a proportion of the population than even the United States. But the raw number, he claims, is less important than the age distribution.
“While in the group of people over 65, 15 percent have a migration background, among 15-year-olds it is 45 percent, and among newborns it is over 50 percent,” Sarrazin said. “Ethnic Germans account for only about 40 percent of births. I quote from the 2020 yearbook of the statistical office. These are the figures that are decisive for what the German population will look like in 2070, given that we are only about two generations away from it.”
He predicts that by 2070, roughly 80 percent of all births will be to non-German mothers, with the majority being Muslim. “That is my estimate today, but… the situation could get even worse. For example, if another sudden wave of mass immigration comes,” he warned.
Sarrazin also claimed his predictions of educational decline have proven accurate. He argued that international benchmarks such as PISA now show a marked drop in student performance across the board, a trend he attributes largely to immigration-related demographic changes. While acknowledging that digital distractions like mobile phones also play a role, he maintained that the growing share of students from lower-performing backgrounds is the primary driver.
“The fact is not only that the decline of primary education has progressed much further than I expected, but also that there remain roughly the same differences in performance between groups of pupils based on their background,” he said.
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