A new poll has just been released, and like many others, it shows that a conservative Polish government would win power, but only if Law and Justice (PiS) created an alliance with the right-wing Confederation party. The left is celebrating the PiS’ large drop in support in the polls, but that celebration could prove short-lived if the left loses power in the upcoming national elections next year.
The new poll from National Research Group shows that Law and Justice (PiS) actually saw a massive drop in support, falling to 26.9 percent, amounting to a 6.9 percent drop since the last poll.
However, PiS would still have enough voters to form a government if it joined with Confederation, which stands at 16.7 percent.
Meanwhile, the Civic Coalition, at 31.7 percent, is in first place, but would not have enough votes to stay in power with other existing parties, namely the Left.
The poll also shows another massive development bubbling under the surface of Polish politics, which is the rapid rise of Polish MEP Grzegorz Braun’s party, The Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), which would currently receive 7.3 percent of the vote. That means Braun would be a serious power player in Polish politics. His anti-Semitic statements, headline-grabbing stunts, and strict immigration policy seem to only be endearing him to more and more Poles, even if this remains a small share of the population.
Numerous parties fell below the 5 percent threshold, namely the Razem party, at 4.4 percent, Poland 2050 at 3.4 percent, and PSL at 3.1 percent.
In the distribution of seats, the Polish parliament would look like the following. Civic Coalition would receive 175, PIS would receive 153, Confederation 84, KKP 28, and the Left Party 20.
Poland’s left senses a growing crisis for PiS. Roman Giertych, the MP from Donald Tusk’s party, expressed joy on social media with the poll results.
“The Law and Justice party (PiS) has already welcomed the goose, and now it’s slowly becoming clear that the far right is consuming PiS. The electorate is evenly matched. If the right wing goes in three blocs and we in two, we’ll win the election,” he said.
However, based on the math, PiS and Confederation would have enough votes to secure a majority without Braun’s party. That, however, could change if Braun grows in popularity and begins siphoning more votes from rival conservative parties. The chance of a splintering of the right remains a serious prospect.
Even without the ultra-right Braun, a PiS and Confederation government could bring major changes to Poland, including a stringent anti-immigration program and even more conflict with Brussels.
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