Analysis of the raw data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) household survey, officially called the Current Population Survey (CPS), shows an unprecedented 2.2 million decline in the total foreign-born or immigrant population (legal and illegal) between January and July of this year. We preliminarily estimate that the number of illegal immigrants has fallen by 1.6 million in just the last six months. This is likely due to increased out-migration in response to stepped-up enforcement. However, analysis based on the CPS comes with caveats.
Findings:
- Analysis of the CPS data shows the total foreign-born population of all ages, both in and out of the labor force, declined an unprecedented 2.2 million from January to July – the largest six-month decline ever within the same year.
- Non-citizens accounted for all of the falloff in the total foreign-born; the naturalized U.S. citizen population has actually increased some since January.
- We preliminarily estimate that the illegal immigrant population declined an astonishing 1.6 million (10 percent) to 14.2 million from January to July of this year.
- Confirmation of the decline in the illegal immigrant population can be seen in the 10 percent decrease in the number of non-citizens from Latin America who indicated they arrived in the U.S. in 1980 or later. It is well-established that this population overlaps significantly with illegal immigrants.
- Although some have voiced concern, based on the BLS’s other employment-focused survey, that job growth is underreported, the CPS actually shows significant job growth among the U.S.-born. Further, to the extent employment growth may have slowed overall, it is likely due to illegal immigrants leaving the country.
- Based on the CPS, the BLS reports in Table A-7 of the Employment Situation Report that the number of employed foreign-born individuals declined by 1 million from January to July 2025. Table A-7 also shows an increase of 2.5 million workers among the U.S.-born.
- There are a few important caveats. First, given recent stepped-up enforcement efforts, it is possible that the observed decline in the foreign-born was due, at least in part, to a greater reluctance by immigrants to participate in the survey or to identify as foreign-born; 2) Some of the administrative data necessary to estimate illegal immigrants is not yet available, making our estimate for July only preliminary; and 3) Given the way the CPS is designed, employment gains among the U.S.-born, at least in part, may represent a statistical artifact rather than a real trend.
{snip}
The post Overall Foreign-Born Population Down 2.2 Million January to July appeared first on American Renaissance.
American Renaissance
