WTF Is UMich Doing With Its Inflation Expectations Data?

US consumer sentiment tumbled from five month highs in preliminary August data, down (for the first time in four months) from 61.7 to 58.6 (62.0 exp) with both Current Conditions and Expectations declining…

Source: Bloomberg

“This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation,” according to UMich Director Joanne Hsu.

“Current personal finances declined modestly amid growing concerns about purchasing power. In contrast, expected personal finances inched up a touch along with a slight firming in income expectations, which remain subdued. “

Both Democrats and Republican saw optimism slide (with Independents rising) but the spread between Dems and Reps now at a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

After plunging back to reality for two months, inflation expectations surged back higher in August with year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.5% last month to 4.9% this month and long-run inflation expectations also lifted from 3.4% in July to 3.9%… 

Source: Bloomberg

We have no idea what the fuck is going on with this elevated inflation expectation all three political cohorts saw one-year inflation expectations decline…

UMich taking a flamethrower to what little was left of its credibility – it’s not just 1Yr inflation expectations: Republican, Democrat 5Yr inflation expectations slumped, but the “median” magically soared

So where did the expectation increase come from? Non-voters? Illegals?

Can Trump fire the head of UMich’s survey creator too?