In the first major state elections since the new government, North Rhine-Westphalia went to the polls, with the Christian Democrats (CDU) coming out on top while the Social Democrats (SPD) crashed in support. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now the third-strongest party in the state, more than tripling its support from the last elections.
The state, which has 14 million eligible voters, served as a major litmus test for the new government. The CDU was the clear winner, earning 33 percent of the vote, compared to its 2020 total of 34.2 percent.
The AfD was seen as growing its support substantially, jumping to 14.5 percent of the vote, a clear jump from 5.1 percent in the last elections. However, the party actually received a higher share of the vote during the federal elections, meaning support for the party appears to be stagnating.
Nevertheless, the establishment views the AfD results as a worrying sign.
“This result should give us pause and cannot let us sleep peacefully,” said North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst, of the CDU, to the “Report from Berlin.”
The left-wing SPD was seen as one of the big losers, falling to 22 percent in what was once considered one of its heartlands. In 1994, the party received 42 percent of the vote.
The far-left Green Party also sunk dramatically, going from 20 percent to 13.4 percent.
The local elections could have implications for the federal coalition between the CDU and SPD. With the SPD losing votes, it could turn more sharply against the CDU, with the two parties already sharply clashing over judicial appointments.
The votes were for thousands of candidates, including those running for district councilor, mayor, districting administrators, and other positions.
However, a looming crisis has to do with the fact that a majority of municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy. Only 16 out of 427 were able to put forward balanced budgets in 2024.
A number of run-off votes will also be taking place on Sept. 28. The CDU and SPD are combining forces to block AfD candidates. For the first time, the AfD will be in mayoral run-offs, including Norbert Emmerich in Gelsenkirchen, who scored 29.8 percent of the vote. However, he is far behind the SPD opponent, Andrea Henze, who received 37.1 percent of the votes.
In many of the other races, the AfD candidate appears to have little chance of victory.
NRW woes
Unemployment is growing in the German state, with 800,000 jobless reported in August. Bankruptcies are also growing, jumping to 3,190 in the first half of 2025, a 17.2 percent increase.
The AfD is still celebrating its results. Party co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated on X, writing it was a “great success.” However, the actual totals for the AfD turned out to be slightly less than exit polls initially predicted.
The AfD, however, continues to grow in strength in the east of the country. Furthermore, new polls show the party hitting close to 20 percent in Bavaria.
The party will still need to boost its support to close to 20 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia and other Western states if it ever hopes to secure the support of 30 percent of voters nationwide, one of its key goals. If it ever manages to secure such a voting share, it would make forming coalitions without the party at the federal level nearly impossible.
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