Based on the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) from January to July of this year the Center for Immigration Studies previously reported that the foreign-born or immigrant population (legal and illegal) declined by 2.2 million, with illegal immigrants accounting for nearly three-fourths of the falloff.1 The August data shows a nearly identical number of immigrants as July, so the decline remains 2.2 million through August. As we noted in our prior report, because of stepped-up immigration enforcement it is possible the decline “was due, at least in part, to a greater reluctance by immigrants to participate in the survey or to identify as foreign-born”. However, based on multiple months of data, response rates to the CPS, continued willingness of survey participants to answer immigration-related questions, slowing job growth reported by employers, anecdotal evidence, and other data, we find no reason to doubt that the decline in the foreign-born is real.
Among our findings:
- The decrease in the foreign-born might be dismissed as a statistical anomaly if only one month showed a much smaller foreign-born population compared to January. But, in fact, multiple months of CPS data show a large decline in the foreign-born after January.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports no sudden increase in the share of households unwilling or unable to participate in the CPS. In fact, in August, survey response rates jumped but there was no increase in immigrants in the survey.
- There has been no increase in the share of respondents to the CPS who were unable or unwilling to answer the specific immigration-related questions in the survey, such as country of birth or citizenship.
- Although the government’s establishment survey of employers does not identify the foreign-born or U.S.-born, it does show a dramatic slowdown in the overall number of employees businesses report having added in recent months.
- The Job Opening and Labor Force Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data shows an increase in people leaving jobs in accommodation and food services, and construction — two industries with large concentrations of immigrants.
- Despite a methodology that is biased toward showing growth in the foreign-born in 2025, the CPS still shows a significant decline so far this year.
- The huge number of stories in major media outlets since the start of this year about immigrants leaving voluntarily, or thinking about doing so, further buttresses our finding that the foreign-born population has declined.
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