Baltic States Prepare Mass Evacuation Plans Amid Growing Fears Of Russian Attack

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are drawing up detailed plans to evacuate vast numbers of their citizens to the countries’ west in the event of a Russian invasion, with officials warning that Moscow could attempt to overrun all three Baltic states in less than a week.

Reuters reported that planning has accelerated since May, when the three countries agreed to coordinate civil protection efforts amid mounting concern over Russian aggression.

The Baltic governments have doubled their defense spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, citing repeated Russian cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and recent violations of Baltic airspace by Russian fighter jets and drones as signs of growing hostility.

“It is possible that we will see a massive army along the Baltic borders with the obvious goal of conquering all three countries within three days to a week,” said Renatas Požéla, head of Lithuania’s fire and rescue service, as cited by Denník N.

While a conventional invasion remains the most serious scenario, governments are also preparing for a range of other destabilizing events, from sabotage of transportation networks and mass migration waves to civil unrest among Russian-speaking minorities and disinformation campaigns designed to trigger panic.

Exercises are already taking place. A recent drill in Lithuania involved evacuating just 100 people from Vilnius, but Požéla said real plans envision moving around 400,000 residents — roughly half of those living within 40 kilometers of the Russian and Belarusian borders. Kaunas, Lithuania’s second-largest city, has prepared to accommodate 300,000 people in schools, churches, universities, and a stadium. The city is located further west than the capital Vilnius, which lies close to the Belarusian border.

Those fleeing west by car would be diverted to secondary roads to keep main routes clear for mobilization, with maps showing where evacuees could seek refuge already having been distributed.

None of the Baltic states currently plan to relocate civilians beyond their borders, which would require military convoys to negotiate Poland’s Suwałki Gap, sandwiched between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.

“We have to take into account the risk presented by the Suwałki Corridor,” said Estonian security expert Ivar Mai.

Estonia is preparing to move around 10 percent of its 1.4 million residents into temporary shelters, with many more expected to stay with relatives. In Narva, a city with a large Russian-speaking population, two-thirds of its 50,000 residents could be evacuated, with the government assisting at least half. “It’s only for those who have nowhere else to go,” Mai explained.

Latvia is preparing for even larger displacements. Around one-third of its 1.9 million citizens could be forced from their homes in the event of war, said Ivars Nakurts, deputy commander of the Latvian Fire and Rescue Service. “Count on everything,” he warned.

Incidents involving Russian incursions into EU airspace have been reported more frequently in recent months, including the drones reported in Poland and fighter jets entering Estonian territory last month.

However, Moscow insists it has no intention of invading any EU member state.

Speaking at the U.N. General Assembly in New York last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “Threats of force against Russia, accused of practically planning an attack on NATO and the European Union, are becoming increasingly common. President Putin has repeatedly debunked such provocations.

“Russia has never had and does not have such intentions, but any aggression against my country will be met with a decisive response.”

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