Only 3% Of Ukrainian Refugees Likely To Return In Worst-Case Scenario, Ifo Study Warns

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A new study warns that the vast majority of Ukrainian refugees living in Europe may never return home unless Ukraine regains its territory and secures Western security guarantees.

Just 3 percent of Ukrainian refugees in Europe would return to their home country in the most pessimistic post-war scenario, according to a major new working paper by Germany’s Ifo Institute.

The study, based on surveys of 2,543 refugees across 30 European countries, found that territorial integrity and security guarantees are the most decisive factors in shaping return decisions — outweighing economic opportunities and even peace agreements.

The researchers presented refugees with a range of hypothetical post-war conditions, varying factors such as Ukraine’s territorial control, NATO membership, corruption levels, and economic recovery.

They found that the difference between best- and worst-case outcomes is vast: Nearly half of refugees (46.5 percent) would return if Ukraine fully restored its 1991 borders, joined NATO, cut corruption and boosted incomes.

On the other hand, just 2.7 percent would do so if Russia retained most occupied territories, no peace deal was signed, security guarantees were absent, and the economy worsened.

“Territorial integrity is the strongest driver of return intentions,” the authors write, noting that restoring Ukraine’s 1991 borders raises the average probability of return by 10.8 percentage points compared to scenarios where Russia retains control. NATO membership increases return probability by a further 7.1 points, while cutting corruption boosts it by 3.2 points — roughly the same effect as a 20 percent rise in income or the prospect of EU accession.

The study also found significant demographic differences.

Women showed higher overall return intentions than men and were more sensitive to economic and institutional improvements.

Younger refugees, aged 18 to 34, placed more weight on job opportunities, income prospects, and potential EU membership, but their average return probability was just 26.3 percent — a worrying sign for Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction given its low birth rate.

“Credible security arrangements and the restoration of territorial integrity are prerequisites for large-scale voluntary return,” the authors note.

Given that NATO membership and EU membership are currently off the table without unanimity among members — Hungary, for example, proving to be a stumbling block in both instances — the percentage of returnees in reality would likely be at the lower end of the scale, with Ukraine unlikely to achieve the conditions the Ifo Institute identifies as prerequisites for large-scale return.

The realistic return rate is far lower than previous surveys, such as one conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) last year, which revealed that 64 percent of Ukrainian refugees living in Poland, Germany, and Czechia, were satisfied with their new lives and intended to pursue citizenship in their respective host countries.

The longer the conflict drags on, the less likely Ukrainian refugees are to return home, as seen by a February 2023 survey from Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), which revealed 34 percent of respondents would return immediately after the war without qualification.

According to Eurostat data, as of the end of August 2025, 4.37 million Ukrainian refugees were living in the European Union under the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive — equivalent to 9.7 refugees per 1,000 people across the bloc.

Poland and Germany host by far the largest numbers, with 1.21 million and 995,925 respectively, followed by the Czech Republic (385,855) and Italy (171,200).

Substantial Ukrainian populations are also present in Spain (244,165), France (129,350), and Romania (192,835).

At 34.4 per 1,000 persons, Czechia has taken in the most refugees per capita, followed by Poland (27.3) and Estonia (25.4).

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