The growth of the controversial National Disability Insurance Scheme has exceeded government targets, and 16% of six-year-old boys are now participants, the latest quarterly report shows.
Costs grew by 9.5% during the September quarter, faster than the government’s goal of 8%, and there are now 751,000 people on the $50 billion scheme, which already costs more than Medicare and aged care. 23% (172,730) of those are under nine years old, and 41% (309,516) are on the scheme for autism.
But the report stated annual expenses growth was on track to meet the target in the 2026-27 financial year, which was announced in response to projections the NDIS would cost $100 million by 2027, more than the aged pension, and 8% growth will result in the NDIS reaching that level in 2035 instead.
“Total Scheme expenses for the 3 months to September 2025 were $12.7 billion (on an accrual basis), which is $19 million (0.2%) above the June 2025 Annual Financial Sustainability Report projections,” the report stated.
“As at 30 September 2025, annual Scheme expense growth was 10.1%, down from 10.8% at the end of the previous quarter. Plan inflation in the September 2025 quarter was 9.5%. This was lower than the total figure in the September 2024 quarter of 11.5%.
An additional 13,851 children joined the scheme during the quarter, making up 66% of new participants, according to the report, which also showed that 16% of boys and 7% of girls aged six are on the NDIS.
“Much of the difference in children’s participation rates by gender can be explained by differences in diagnosis by disability type. For NDIS participants younger than 18, the most prevalent disability types are autism and developmental delay. Both disability types have higher diagnosis rates in males,” the report stated.
Of the 20,896 people who joined the NDIS in the September quarter, 10.3% were indigenous, compared to 8.3% overall, despite being 3.8% of the population.
The report also said the Fraud Fusion Taskforce, brought in to stop organised criminals including Middle Eastern gangs stealing billons from the scheme, had conducted 634 investigations and “disrupted” 1,900 providers who submitted incorrect or non-compliant claims.
The taskforce said earlier this year that fraudsters, who stole an estimated $8.8 billion from the NDIS in 2023, were taking billions more than previously believed and that the true scale was impossible to calculate.
Nico Louw, policy director and chief economist at the Menzies Research Centre, told The Australian Financial Review that even if the NDIS hit the growth target of 8%, it would “still leave the scheme growing much faster than the economy, which is unsustainable”.
“A more appropriate target would be for spending on the scheme to grow no faster than spending on universal healthcare through Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, which is currently around 4%,” he said.
Header image credit: NDIS.
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