Donald Trump’s strict policies on immigration have emboldened European states to introduce increasingly hardline measures of their own, a report has found.
Ideas such as offshore asylum processing, summary expulsions, the pushback of boats, deportations, suspension of asylum and prolonged detention are no longer making headlines, according to Mixed Migration Centre.
The research organisation’s report says this indicates “they have turned into mainstream occurrences” and, as long as anti-migration measures are less extreme than those of the Trump administration, they might fall within the new window of “acceptability” in Europe.
In the UK, Shabana Mahmood’s reforms – billed as the biggest changes to the asylum system since the Second World War – aim to ramp up deportations and reduce the factors that attract migrants to the UK.
They include plans to deport migrant families whose asylum claims have been rejected if they refuse cash incentives to leave, ending refugees’ automatic right to stay in the UK and forcing those who remain to wait for 20 years for permanent settlement.
The Home Secretary also borrowed a hard-line policy implemented in Denmark, where Danish police can search for and confiscate cash, jewellery and other valuables from arriving migrants to help pay for their housing and food.
But the report warns against normalising such policies, as the long-term effect may exacerbate the global migration crisis rather than alleviate the situation, as the American stance is pushing migrants towards Europe and its smuggling networks.
The Trump administration’s cuts, threats and deals are hampering the ability of humanitarian organisations to assist people on the move, and will result in “more people turning to smugglers to circumvent tougher restrictions and militarised borders”, the report says.
Migrants say delays in US resettlement programmes, plus a lack of aid funding has led to political instability and unliveable conditions in their home countries, prompting them to consider migrating to Europe.
Experts have long stressed the importance for clear, legal and safe pathways for refugees to obtain asylum and visas. Without that, people desperate to escape war and famine will be forced to take ever more dangerous measures.
Global economic woes, however, may change the tide on migration. Anti-migrant sentiment is on the rise in Europe, but so is the need for low-cost migrant labour at a time when economic conditions are deteriorating.
“While the current push for more restrictive migration policies can ease political pressures, it may also imperil economic growth,” noted the report.
“Curbing legal pathways and/or clamping down on irregular migrants who may form an important part of local workforces can cut against other policy priorities, such as tackling labour shortages in priority sectors or sustaining workforces amid accelerating demographic decline.”
In the US, politicians balancing between these two priorities – limiting migration and boosting the economy – has already led to friction between Trump and his America First supporters.
The annual migration report also noted new patterns on migration routes. One previously marginal route between Libya and the Greek islands of Crete and Gavdos has had greater traffic, with nearly 11,500 arriving as of August. This was driven partly by the war in Sudan, with Sudanese migrants amongst the most numerous arrivals, along with Egyptians and Bangladeshis.
Sudan is the world’s largest and fastest-growing displacement crisis, with an estimated 12 million people forced to flee their homes as of July 2024, and 7.7 million people displaced within the country, according to the Migration Policy Institute, a think tank. Between April 2023 to June 2024, violence claimed an estimated 150,000 lives.
The western Mediterranean route, typically from Morocco or Algeria to Spain, which had been relatively stable in terms of arrivals, spiked in the first seven months of the year to 9,025 arrivals – the highest relative growth of any route.
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