The European Union is preparing to take a step that could redefine its migration policy after years of internal tensions, overwhelmed systems, and growing political pressure. For the first time, Brussels proposes linking preferential access to the European market with the cooperation of developing countries in accepting the return of their citizens whose asylum applications have been rejected.
The measure, integrated into the reform of the Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP)—the program that for half a century has offered tariff advantages to low-income countries—represents a significant shift and opens the door to trade sanctions against governments that refuse to readmit people in irregular situations.
The approach responds to a problem that Member States have been dragging for more than a decade. Although hundreds of thousands of people receive expulsion orders each year after being denied refugee status, only a minority end up being effectively returned.
Among the most commonly cited reasons is the lack of cooperation from countries of origin, which, in some cases, do not issue the necessary consular documents or simply ignore European requests. This blockade has jammed the asylum system, consumed enormous resources, and highlighted the chaotic direction coming from Brussels.
The preliminary agreement reached this week between the Council, the Commission, and the Parliament reflects a new, more pragmatic consensus: Europe is no longer willing to grant commercial benefits without conditions. According to the negotiated text, the Commission may initiate a review procedure if it considers that a country shows an “insufficient level of cooperation” on readmissions. After a dialogue process that would serve as a prior diplomatic channel, Brussels could temporarily suspend part or all of the tariff advantages that the country enjoys. This suspension would be reversible, but would have a significant economic impact on nations whose industries depend on access to the European market of 450 million consumers.
This shift in approach does not arise in a political vacuum. In recent years, migration has become one of the main concerns of European citizens, and the pressure to act has risen in parallel with the electoral gains of right-wing and centre-right parties. Governments such as Denmark’s, currently holding the rotating presidency of the EU, have publicly advocated a firmer stance, inspired by their own national return policies and by the idea that trade tools can be a legitimate mechanism to secure migration cooperation. The reasons are several, one of the main ones being electoral.
To this internal context is added a geopolitical factor that Brussels cannot ignore. The United States, under the direction of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has recently instructed its diplomatic missions to pressure its Western allies to restrict irregular migration and increase deportations. Washington considers mass migration a threat to social cohesion and encourages European countries, as well as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, to toughen their policies. Although the European GSP reform project predates this new U.S. directive, the EU’s capital acknowledges that the international climate is shifting toward greater firmness on migration.
The big question is whether the measure will be enough to correct a system that has shown signs of collapse for years. Return rates remain at historic lows, some countries of origin lack the administrative capacity to handle repatriations, and legal complexity persists in every individual case. Even so, the EU trusts that the economic incentive will have a real deterrent effect and motivate reluctant governments to collaborate.
Ultimately, the GSP reform demonstrates that anti-immigration pressure is bearing fruit. Time will tell whether this step ushers in a more effective migration policy or whether, on the contrary, it will open new tensions with countries that see the EU as an indispensable economic partner.
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