One Nation tied with Coalition in new poll as voters desert major parties

One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition for the first time ever and now sits on 23% of the primary vote, according to a major new poll.

The DemosAU Poll, conducted on January 5 and 6, showed Labor’s primary vote down 5.6 points since the May federal election to 29%, the Coalition down 8.8%, and Pauline Hanson’s party up 16.6%, while the Greens and “others” are relatively stable on 12% and 13% respectively.

On a two-party preferred basis Labor leads 52-48, but on an ALP-One Nation two party preferred measure they are even on 50% each, which DemosAU’s Head of Research George Hasanakos said was because Coalition preference flows to One Nation were stronger than the reverse.

“Australia is now on the cusp of following several European countries where a far-right populist party is now challenging for government in the polls,’’ Mr Hasanakos said.

“It’s not that shocking when you see other polls, for example, in the United Kingdom, showing a Reform Party lead over a first term UK Labour government. The recent terrorist attack in Bondi has shocked the nation and put issues such as national security, anti-semitism, immigration and community cohesion firmly in the spotlight.

“With the rising support of One Nation before this event, it makes this fertile ground for a long-standing anti-immigration voice in Ms Hanson to gain further support. Combine this with the electorate’s increasing frustration over the rising cost of living, it’s no surprise that many Australians are looking for alternatives.”

One Nation responded to the poll on social media, saying the “historic poll signals the end of the old two-party stranglehold” and said the results showed “voters are walking away from Anthony Albanese in numbers he has not faced before”.

A historic poll signals the end of the old two-party stranglehold.

Fresh polling conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, the first voting intention survey of the new year, has delivered a result that that is truly historic . One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition on 23%… pic.twitter.com/JXsz7T0QQa

— One Nation Australia (@OneNationAus) January 9, 2026

The poll shows nearly one in three 2025 Coalition voters (31%) would now cast their primary voter for One Nation, along with 11% who voted for Labor, 25% who voted for other parties, 20% who do not remember or did not vote, and 4% of Greens voters. 88% of One Nation voters would do so again.

One Nation had slightly more support from males (24% to 23% for females), and has more support among olders and those in outer metropolitan and rural and regional areas.

Broken down by age, 12% of 18-34s give their primary vote to Pauline Hanson’s party, rising to 26% for those aged 35-54, and 28% for those 55+.

Those aged 18-34 favour Labor (32%), followed by the Greens (26%), and the Coalition (19%).

Asked to choose between Anthony Albanese and Sussan Ley as preferred prime minister 42% selected the Prime Minister to 29% for the Opposition leader, while on personal leader rating Mr Albanese and Ms Ley had net scores of -12% and -11% respectively.

The survey of 1,027 voters has a margin of error of 4%, DemosAU said.

Header image: Left, Anthony Albanese (PMO). Right, Pauline Hanson at a March for Australia rally (Facebook).

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