Venezuela, Silver And Greenland: How The U.S.-China Power Split Is Reshaping the World

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

America’s intervention in Venezuela is just days old, and the world seems unable to settle. The heated debate over Greenland’s future overshadows the main thread of a new world order emerging—one that is being decided between the U.S. and China. Europe, for now, is relegated to the role of a progressively anxious bystander.

In recent weeks, much speculation has surrounded the background and consequences of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela on January 3. On the surface, political commentators and mainstream media focus largely on Venezuelan heavy oil’s role and future. And they are right: if the U.S. manages to revive the mostly idle capacities via its domestic production industry—especially through firms like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Exxon—a significant geopolitical lever emerges.

This lever primarily reshapes the negotiation matrix and dynamics between Washington and Beijing. China requires this oil for its maritime expansion; the U.S., in turn, for refining capacity in the southern states, particularly Texas. Controlling exports to China could strengthen America’s negotiating position on rare earths—a pressure point China has repeatedly wielded, even against European companies. Potentially, the U.S. could also pressure Beijing and curb the subsidized Chinese export machine. These are substantial arguments on the path to U.S. reindustrialization.

Simultaneously, discussions suggest the U.S. government’s core aim is to push back Chinese influence in South American key resource markets—echoing the Monroe Doctrine. China’s response to Nicolás Maduro’s detention was surprisingly restrained. Beyond the expected diplomatic protest, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing drew attention. Canada, as a resource giant, increasingly plays the counterweight to Donald Trump’s administration.

Alberta, Greenland, and the Subtle Shifts

Carney spoke over the weekend of discussions with China’s leadership on a new world order—a multipolar global order no longer centered on the United States. For China, the point was clear: Canada is effectively being pushed out of the U.S. refining business due to the planned reopening of Venezuelan oil fields. Canadian heavy oil is of high interest to China, which must now find alternative markets to counter growing U.S. pressure.

A minor footnote deserves attention: alongside the media frenzy over Greenland—a debate in Europe elevated to a NATO survival question due to the island’s resource wealth and strategic waterways—another discussion is emerging in the U.S. and Canada: the future of Alberta. President Trump has repeatedly referenced this, opening the door to secession speculation. Could a referendum—still speculative—result in Canada losing access to a significant portion of its resources if Albertans vote for independence? This debate merits close monitoring, as it could offer deep insights into future resource markets and geopolitical control.

Strategic Metal: Silver

Maduro’s detention opens the U.S. potential insight into South American trade relations with China, particularly in resources. Key questions remain: which quantities were transferred outside official trade balances, which resources specifically, and to what extent were U.S. sanctions circumvented? These factors will likely play a decisive role in the coming years as the global economy decouples.

If it turns out that Venezuela exported strategically important resources like silver to China in significant amounts, the U.S. could now fundamentally alter the dynamics of the global resource order. The core question arises: was the American intervention really only about Venezuelan heavy oil?

Last summer, the U.S. officially declared silver a strategic metal. Since then, silver prices have surged, confirming suspicions that both China and the U.S. are stockpiling heavily. Silver is indispensable for building AI data center infrastructure and electric motors.

There is also a monetary dimension: growing U.S. and Chinese concentration of strategic metals increases pressure on Europe’s currency system. The world increasingly moves toward metal-backed monetary systems, with central banks hoarding for balance-sheet stability. Metals are gaining global weight as a stabilizing economic and financial foundation.

China now enforces a comparatively strict silver export regime. Industrial demand is expected to rise sharply in coming years, making questions about Venezuela’s actual resource flows crucial—far beyond oil.

Control of key sea routes, systematic displacement of Chinese presence in the Panama Canal and U.S. West Coast ports, and securing access to strategic resources—including Greenland—regardless of Europe’s stance, are elements of a broader strategy. The U.S. is forcing a bifurcation: a geopolitical division into two spheres of influence—U.S. and Chinese.

This split has been decades in the making, accelerated by China’s rise. Historically, it is hard to halt without risking major military conflict. Coordination between the U.S. and China in this economic decoupling is key to minimizing conflict.

Bifurcation of World Order

The U.S. is determined to consolidate its role in the Western Hemisphere and—likely in coordination with Beijing and Moscow—gradually retreat into its self-defined power zone. This is not weakness but strategic calculation in a fragmented world order.

Regarding the so-called Greenland crisis: the EU plays no real role in the global resource scramble. European states import roughly 60% of their energy. The failed attempt to secure resources from Russia via regime change and a defeat in Ukraine highlights the EU’s geopolitical impotence.

Deploying a small European force to Greenland to limit U.S. influence underscores Europe-U.S. tensions. Trump responded by raising tariffs by 10%, threatening 25% if Europe’s stance did not change—revealing the stark asymmetry of power. Brussels appears as a paper giant.

Given this imbalance, Europe’s failure to forge a political alliance to adopt a cooperative U.S. approach is puzzling. Brussels and London opt for confrontation, a path likely leading to further economic losses. Europe’s strength lies in aligning with U.S. market regimes, abandoning hidden climate protectionism, and activating its robust domestic market. Geopolitically, the fight is lost, only recoverable via sensible economic policy.

Attempts via Mercosur to secure trade leeway in South America have been underwhelming. The agreement largely enforces Brussels’ climate regulations, already straining European business, leaving true free trade as distant as ever.