Slovenia is heading toward complex and potentially prolonged coalition negotiations after partial results from its parliamentary election showed a razor-thin lead for the ruling Freedom Movement (Svoboda), led by liberal Prime Minister Robert Golob, with 28.62 percent of the vote after 99.8 percent of ballots were counted.
The opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), headed by populist Janez Janša, followed closely behind with 27.95 percent, leaving a margin of just a few thousand votes between the two main political blocs. With postal ballots from Slovenians abroad still to be counted, the final gap remains subject to change, and the “winner” of the election is not yet definitively settled.
According to the near-final results, a broad range of smaller parties is set to enter the 90-seat National Assembly. The joint list of NSi, SLS, and Fokus secured around 9.3 percent of the vote, positioning itself as a potentially influential centrist-conservative bloc. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats (SD) and the Democrats each garnered 6.7 percent, while Resni.ca reached 5.6 percent and the alliance of Levica and Vesna obtained 5.5 percent. All of these parties have cleared the 4 percent parliamentary threshold, ensuring their representation and likely giving them kingmaker roles in any coalition agreement.
Crucially, neither Svoboda nor SDS is capable of reaching the 46 seats required for a majority, even when factoring in their most natural coalition partners. Svoboda can reach around 40 seats, while Janša’s SDS can get to around 43. The arithmetic makes a stable government far from guaranteed and raises the prospect of drawn-out negotiations, minority governance, a fragile multi-party coalition, or, quite possibly, another election.
Golob declared victory late on Sunday and stated that his party would seek to move forward with forming the next government. Addressing supporters, he said, “We all placed our trust in one party, regardless of what we believe. We all deserve a future, and I am here right now to say that with this mandate, we will do everything to make that future better for all our citizens.” At the same time, he acknowledged the task ahead, noting that “we have difficult negotiations ahead.”
Svoboda’s support dropped significantly from the 2022 election, when it amassed 34.5 percent of the vote.
Janša, who was seeking a return to the premiership, warned that the election outcome would likely lead to even more of a divide in Slovenia, stating that “there will not be much political stability” in the period ahead. He also raised serious concerns about the integrity of the vote count, claiming that his party’s monitoring team had identified discrepancies of approximately 50,000 votes in favor of SDS. “I call upon those responsible at the national election commission, those who manage the computer program, to understand that I will recount every vote from all the polling stations if we organize ourselves accordingly,” he said during a television appearance.
The two main parties differed sharply on the vision they presented for Slovenia’s future. Under Golob’s leadership, the government has pursued a liberal, pro-European agenda centered on social reforms, environmental policies, and closer alignment with Brussels, including support for recognition of a Palestinian state.
Janša, however, has campaigned on a platform emphasizing economic liberalization through tax cuts, reduced public spending on NGOs, and a reorientation of Slovenia’s foreign policy. He has maintained close ties with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and has positioned himself as an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, advocating for a more sovereign and conservative direction for the country.
With just 5,753 votes currently separating Svoboda and SDS, even a relatively modest number of postal ballots from abroad could influence the final ranking. In the previous parliamentary election, more than 14,000 votes were cast from outside the country, suggesting that the remaining ballots could still carry weight in determining the final outcome.
Elsewhere, smaller parties are already reacting to the results. The right-wing Slovenian National Party (SNS), led by Zmago Jelinčič Plemeniti, failed to cross the parliamentary threshold after securing just 2.3 percent of the vote. Jelinčič warned that Slovenia could face serious challenges in the coming years and suggested that the country is “in bad shape.”
Voter turnout reached 69.32 percent, marking the second-highest participation rate since 2000.
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