Is There A Strategic Nuclear Arms Race?

Authored by Peter Huessy via RealClearWire

Yes, there is a nuclear arms race. But the United States is not in it and has not been since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR.

On the contrary, the U.S. has significantly reduced both its reliance on nuclear weapons and its inventory of nuclear forces by over 90 percent.

Two major countries engaged in an accelerating nuclear arms race are Russia and China. Trouble remains as while thankfully, the United States has now taken critical steps to modernize its strategic nuclear forces, replacing its aging forces on a one-for one basis—the U.S. remains from 2.5 to 6 times worse off in the nuclear production business as the U.S. is racing only to stay in place.

Russia has not only modernized its strategic nuclear forces, (over 90 percent completed) they have also significantly increased the number of nuclear warheads they can deliver, replacing, for example the single warhead Topol ICBMs with multiwarhead Yars ICBMs, creating a warhead count potentially far in excess of New Start Treaty limits.

Russia currently has 168 Yars ICBMs (24 silo, 144 mobile), each carrying 4–6 RVs, 36 Yars-S each carrying three heavy re-entry vehicles (RVs); 46 SS-18 ICBMs each carrying 10 RVs, being replaced by the Sarmat each carrying up to 15–20 light (90–150 kt) RVs. The SS-19s are largely retired except for eighteen carrying the Avangard hypersonic vehicle. Current total ICBM warheads are between 1916–2190 if fully uploaded.

Russia has 5 Delta-IV SSBNs each carrying 16 Layner SLBMs and each capable of carrying 8–12 RVs. Russia also has 8 Borei SSBNs with two more under construction and two to four more planned after that. Each Borei caries 16 Bulava SLBMs, each SLBM carries 6 RVs for a total of 1312–1632 warheads. Votinsk, the production plant, can produce Yars and Bulava missiles at a rate of ~40/year.

Russia’s bomber force is rapidly decaying—The ~52 Tu-95 Bears were to be modernized with new engines and avionics, but that program is moving slowly due to sanctions, and the same is true for the 13 Tu-160 Blackjack bombers to be modernized to the Tu-160 M2 standard. Russia planned on building fifty additional Tu-160M2s, but that program is also delayed, as is Russia’s new stealth bomber the PAK-DA. Total current bomber weapon numbers are 964 bringing total Russian strategic nuclear force totals to 4192–4786 warheads.

China’s rapid nuclear build up has been characterized as “breath-taking” by U.S. officials. Although China continues to claim a minimum deterrent posture retaliatory only in nature, their forces as deployed enable them to execute any policy/strategy they wish.

China has 96 DF-31 mobile ICBMs each with 1–3 RVs; 84 DF-41 ICBMs with 2–10 RVs; 40 DF-5 B/C liquid fuel silo based ICBMs with 10 RVs (DF-5C); 320–360 silo based DF-31/41 in three ICBM fields. China recently show-cased the new DF-61 ICBM, close in size to the DF-41 and more technologically advanced. A recent DIA report stated that China would have 700 ICBMs by 2035, some 75 percent greater than the United States.

China’s sea leg of their nuclear TRIAD consists of 6 Type 094 Jin class SSBN, each with 12 JL-3 SLBMs with 1–3 RVs for a total of between 72–216 SLBM warheads. Another 6–8 Type 096 SSBNs are expected to be deployed by 2035, each carrying 16–20 JL-3 or new class SLBMs. Total current SLBM warhead count is 216, but the new 096 SSBN would add another 288–480 warheads.

China’s air leg of the TRIAD consists of 90–100 H-6K bombers carrying 6–7 CJ-20 cruise missiles (2000 km range) as well as 20–30 H-6N carrying one new JL-1 nuclear missile revealed in the recent military parade. China can produce 15–20 H-6 bombers/year, but H-6 production will likely be replaced by production of the H-20 stealth bomber. China’s stealth bomber is expected first flight in 2025/26 and will have a range of 8,500 km and be capable of carrying 10–16 weapons. Current total bomber weapon count is 630 warheads.

China’s current total strategic nuclear weapons count is 4846 if fully uploaded. This is in stark contrast to the U.S. Intelligence Community statement that China only has ~600 strategic nuclear weapons. However simple math shows that if you take the current Russian and Chinese missile numbers stated by FAS and the Intelligence community and multiply by the estimated WH carriage capability you produce far more WH numbers than 600.

The strategic nuclear modernization and build-up programs of China and Russia are largely completed, with Russia completing deployment of at least 46 Sarmat ICBMs with 15–20 RVs as well as the Arcturus SSBN with a 2035 IOC, and eventually the PAK-DA bomber.

China’s strategic nuclear force is forecast to continue to grow to 700 ICBMs by 2035 as well as the addition of the Type 096 SSBN, additional H-6 bombers and a new H-20 stealth bomber.

In contrast, the United States is only modernizing its TRIAD, not increasing its force size or capabilities, replacing ageing systems on a one-for-one basis with no increase in deployed nuclear warheads—in no way can these modernization actions be viewed as “Arms Racing.”

The Sentinel ICBM with one warhead will replace the existing 450 MM III ICBM which are 55 years old and armed with one warhead starting in the 2030’s and completed by 2040’s. The Columbia SSBN, with 16 D-5 SLBMs (Currently armed with ~4 RVs) will replace the OHIO SSBN with 20 D-5 SLBMs on a one-for-one basis starting in 2030–2 and completed by 2042. D-5 SLBMs from Ohio D-5 SSBNs will go into the Columbia SSBNs. The U.S. sea leg of the TRIAD could have 1536 warheads if fully uploaded w/8 RVs/SLBM.

The B-21 dual role conventional/nuclear bomber will enter the force in 2027 at a rate of 7–10/year for a total of 100 bombers. They can carry B-61 bombs or eight nuclear AGM-181 Long Range Stand-Off (LRSO) cruise missiles. They will replace the 45 B-1 conventional bomber and the 20 B-2 bombers. The 76 strong B-52 force will be modernized into the B-52J configuration with new engines and avionics and fly until ~2070, when it will be 100 years old. The B-52J will be capable of carrying up to 20 long range strike options or cruise missiles.

In summary, while China, Russia, and North Kores have been “Arms Racing” since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has been a side-line observer. The current long delayed U.S. strategic force modernization program is replacing systems ageing out on a one-for-one basis without increasing capability while Russia, China, and North Korea have not only modernized their force they have also significantly increased capabilities.

The chart represents the average annual production rate for three alternative nuclear forces if built over twenty years from 2025–45 based on projected force structures planned by the United States and in part planned and announced by Russia and China.

The United States is facing a two-peer deterrence dilemma—a Russia with as many as 4786 strategic nuclear warheads; China with potentially upwards of 4846 strategic nuclear weapons for a combined force of 9632 strategic nuclear warheads.

The United States will have 3010 strategic nuclear weapons and approximately 200 theater weapons if we upload all our missiles. As stated by the U.S. Strategic Posture Commission as well as a growing number of U.S. officials, the U.S. will have to increase its nuclear forces—but how and how fast?

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.