Ferrari Shares Crash Most On Record After 2030 Outlook Disappoints

Shares of Ferrari NV crashed 16% in Milan trading, marking the biggest intraday decline since 2016, after the exotic carmaker delivered a cautious long-term outlook that fell short of Wall Street expectations. Analysts, including Tom Narayan’s team at RBC Capital Markets, said Ferrari’s updated 2030 guidance came in below consensus estimates. The cautious forecast comes as UBS warned last week that softness in U.S. consumer demand has spread from low-income to middle-income buyers.

Ferrari executives told investors at Capital Markets Day in Maranello that the 2025 guidance has been slightly revised higher, now targeting revenue of at least 7.1 billion euros and adjusted EBITDA of 2.72 billion euros, up from the previously announced target of at least 2.68 billion euros. 

However, the underwhelming 2030 forecast disappointed investors, according to UBS analyst Narayan. He pointed out that management forecasted revenue of 9 billion euros and EBITDA of 3.6 billion euros, implying a CAGR that is well below the 10% growth trajectory forecasted in 2022. 

Here’s the snapshot of the 2025 Forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees adjusted Ebitda at least EU2.72 billion, saw at least EU2.68 billion, estimate EU2.73 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted Ebit at least EU2.06 billion, saw at least EU2.03 billion, estimate EU2.07 billion

• Sees adjusted diluted EPS at least EU8.80, saw at least EU8.60, estimate EU8.90

• Sees industrial free cash flow at least EU1.3 billion, saw at least EU1.2 billion, estimate EU1.41 billion

• Sees revenue at least EU7.1 billion, saw above EU7 billion, estimate EU7.09 billion

Headlines from Capital Markets Day (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• To Increase Div Payout to 40% of Net Starting From 2025

• Sees 2030 net revenue of about EU9 billion

• Sees 2030 adj. Ebitda of at least EU3.60 billion

• Says exceeding the 2026 business plan’s profitability targets one year in advance

• Sees 2030 adj. Ebit of at least EU2.75 billion

• Sees 2030 adj. EPS of at least EU11.50

In Milan, Ferrari shares plunged 16%, the largest decline on record, with data dating back to January 2016, when the stock first began trading. In New York, Ferrari shares fell 14%; those shares have been listed on the market since October 2015.

Back to Milan trading, shares are down 15% year-to-date, a multi-year bull run that began in 2022 now appears to be correcting.

Meanwhile, cracks began to appear among low-income consumers; now, UBS sees those cracks spreading to middle-income ones. 

• First Tricolor Subprime Meltdown, Now UBS Warns: Consumer Weakness Spreading From Low-Income To Middle-Class

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