Still No Deal: Rare Earth Talks Between China And U.S. Drag On With Little Tangible Progress So Far

The US and China are still hashing out the details of how Beijing will loosen rare-earth export restrictions, weeks after a trade truce that Washington said would boost shipments, according to Bloomberg. 

In other words, there’s still no rare earth mineral trade deal, despite the “truce” between the two countries. 

Negotiators have until the end of November to finalize terms for “general licenses” China promised to issue for US-bound rare earths and other critical minerals, though the reason for the delay is unclear.

The White House framed the pledge as the “de facto removal” of China’s curbs imposed since 2023, calling it a major win for supply chains. Washington has already eased tariffs and paused some national-security measures, but China hasn’t publicly addressed the licensing promise, even as it confirmed other parts of the deal, including a one-year halt to new rare-earth controls.

Bloomberg writes that the outcome remains uncertain. Alicia Garcia Herrero said, “The deal is far from done,” noting Beijing can use licenses as leverage. Exporters say they’ve received no new guidance, with Christopher Beddor commenting, “Everyone is still in wait-and-see mode… I would not characterize the general licenses as a de facto removal of controls.”

The general-license system would allow repeated shipments over as long as three years, unlike the current requirement for case-by-case approvals. But buyers would still need to pass government vetting. The White House says these licenses will apply to restricted rare earths and metals such as gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, and graphite; China has also agreed to lift its ban on direct shipments to the US for the first three.

Recall days ago we wrote that disagreements were emerging over the deal and we have been skeptical that a deal would take place since the “truce” was first announced. We wrote that the so-called US–China “truce” looked far too fragile to last, and recent developments have only reinforced that view.

Even as both sides publicly celebrated their agreement, Beijing immediately began laying down new “red lines” — and Washington just as quickly took steps guaranteed to test them. Analysts, exporters, and investors all saw the same thing: a deal heavy on spin and light on substance, with China able to wield licensing power as leverage and the US racing to secure alternative supply chains.

In short, we argued that this ceasefire was never more than a temporary pause before the next escalation, and nothing since has suggested otherwise.