Did Wendy’s Just Lose The QSR War

Fast-food chains are locked in a fierce multi-year battle for low- and middle-income consumers, rolling out value meals and discounts to protect market share. But as budget-conscious customers pull back on spending, one apparent casualty of this fight has emerged: Wendy’s.

Wendy’s third-quarter results showed net sales down 4.4%, with same-restaurant sales falling 4.7%, driven by weaker foot traffic and higher labor costs.

Interim CEO/CFO Ken Cook told investors that the fast-food chain with 6,000 US stores faces “urgency” to return to growth.

“I am pleased by the strong performance as we continue to prioritize accelerating international expansion. In our U.S. business, sales remain under pressure,” Cook told investors on a recent earnings call. 

He noted, “And we are acting with urgency to return U.S. comp sales to growth. We are making meaningful progress on key actions to enhance the customer experience, and we are seeing this payoff in our U.S. company-operated restaurants, which significantly outperformed the overall system in the third quarter.” 

Expanding on the traffic slowdown, Goldman analysts led by Christine Cho cite Placer.ai location data showing that Wendy’s foot traffic sharply deteriorated since mid-summer and collapsed this fall. This data is based on anonymized real-world mobile-device signals.

Data from Bloomberg Second Measure of sales and average transaction value growth also showed rapid deceleration. 

Bloomberg data also showed web traffic growth imploded. The analysts noted the decline “lapped the SpongeBob SquarePants collaboration.” 

QSR Wars 

Cook told investors that a “comprehensive turnaround plan” called Project Fresh is underway to drive profitable growth and long-term value across the U.S. market, though whether it delivers remains to be seen.