US Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Worst Since Liberation Day

Following the collapse in Current Conditions sentiment among Americans surveyed by UMich, The Conference Board confirms the collapse in confidence this morning with the headline print dropping to 88.7 in November (well below the 93.3 exp) following a small upward revision for October. The slump was led by Expectations (which plunged to 63.2 from 71.8) but the Present situation gauge also fell to 126.9 from 131.2.

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest headline sentiment since April (Liberation Day).

“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its second lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions. All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November.

Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”

Under the hood, The Conference Board survey shows the trend of a weaker labor market continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation expectations were flat (but elevated)…

Among demographic groups, confidence continued to improve for consumers under 35 years old, but confidence for consumers age 35 and older dipped, with respondents 55 and over remaining the most downbeat this year.

“Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown. Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October.” 

By income, confidence fell for nearly all cohorts after several months of increasing confidence for most groups.

Consumers earning less than $15K was the only income bracket in which confidence improved in November but remained the least optimistic among all income groups.

Confidence fell among consumers of all political stripes, with the sharpest retreat among independent voters.

The K-Shaped economy continues with stocks near record highs and sentiment near lows.