Germany will not attempt to return Ukrainian refugees en masse after the end of the war, the head of Berlin’s immigration authority has said, insisting there will be no rapid or compulsory repatriation when hostilities cease.
Engelhard Mazanke, director of the Berlin Immigration Office, noted that the EU’s temporary protection regime has already been extended until March 2027. With around 1.3 million Ukrainians living in Germany, he said it is “definitely not” realistic or feasible that the country could contemplate returning everyone in a short timeframe.
Speaking to Ukrinform, Mazanke argued that, even if any political pressure emerged to do so, such a move would be impossible to implement.
The immigration chief noted that Germany had never experienced an influx of such a scale from a culturally similar country, contrasting the wave of Ukrainian refugees to those who arrived en masse from Syria and elsewhere in 2015. While the migration crisis a decade ago was dominated by men, most Ukrainian arrivals have been working-age women with children.
Looking to historical precedent, particularly the refugee movements from the Balkans, Mazanke suggested the long-term outcome may split roughly half between those who return and those who remain — but stressed that family formation, not employment or language, is the key factor in long-term settlement.
Public sentiment, however, is increasingly strained. An INSA poll commissioned by Bild last month found strong opposition among German citizens to continued financial support for Ukrainian refugees: only 17 percent of respondents supported Bürgergeld payments, while 66 percent opposed them. Data from the Federal Labor Agency indicated that by March 2025, 701,000 Ukrainians were receiving public assistance, including 502,000 of working age. The same survey found 62 percent of Germans believe Ukrainian men of conscription age should return home to Ukraine.
Across Europe, research points to limited return intentions unless Ukraine regains its territory and receives firm security guarantees — of which the former at least looks increasingly unlikely under the latest 28-point plan being discussed among the United States and the warring parties. A major study by the Ifo Institute surveyed 2,543 Ukrainian refugees in 30 European countries and concluded that only 2.7 percent would return in a pessimistic post-war scenario — one where Russia retains occupied zones, the economy deteriorates, and no peace deal or security assurances are in place.
In the most favourable scenario — restored 1991 borders, NATO membership, reduced corruption and increased income — the share rises to 46.5 percent. So, even the best case makes Mazanke’s suggestion that half could return look optimistic.
Women reported a stronger willingness to return than men and were more responsive to institutional and economic improvements. Younger refugees valued employment and EU prospects more, yet even among those aged 18 to 34, the average return probability was only 26.3 percent.
The findings suggest the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine may be hampered if return rates remain low.
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