OPEC+ Confirms Plan To Pause Output Hikes In Q1

OPEC+ agreed to pause production hikes and leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meetings on Sunday as the group slows down its push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut.

Eight OPEC+ members have paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025, and Sunday’s meeting reaffirmed that decision, OPEC said in a statement.

OPEC+ still has about 3.24 million bpd of output cuts in place, representing around 3% of global demand. The Sunday meetings did not alter those. These comprise a 2 million bpd oil output cut by most members which is in place until the end of 2026, and the remaining 1.24 million bpd of a 1.65 million bpd reduction that the eight members started to return to the market in October.

Additionally, Reuters reports that the OPEC+ group had approved a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity to be used for setting output baselines from 2027, against which members’ output targets are set. The assessment will be done between January and September 2026, sources said after the meetings, in time for 2027 output quotas to be decided.

One company will assess capacity of 19 of the 22 OPEC+ members, the sources said. Capacity in countries that are under sanctions will be assessed either by a separate company or by using an average of their oil output figures for August through October 2026.

Among the OPEC+ members, Russia, Iran and Venezuela are under Western sanctions.

“The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. 

The meeting of OPEC+ came during a fresh U.S. effort to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could add to oil supply if sanctions on Russia are eased. If the peace deal fails, Russia could see its supply curbed further by sanctions. Alternatively, a peace deal could unleash millions of “clean” barrels on markets that have been locked out since 2022. 

OPEC+ has been discussing the production capacity and quotas issue for years and it has proved difficult because some members such as the United Arab Emirates have increased capacity and want higher quotas.

Other members such as African countries have seen declines in production capacity but are resisting quota cuts. Angola quit the group in 2024 over a disagreement about its production quotas.

Brent crude closed on Friday near $63 a barrel, down 15% this year; it has been in a mostly straight decline since the 2nd quarter of 2024.