Pentagon Gaming Out “Sustained, Weeks-Long Military Campaign” Against Iran Which Could Open Pandora’s Box

The Pentagon is preparing for a “sustained, weeks-long military campaign” against Iran if President Trump gives the green light, according to fresh reporting in Reuters which cites two US officials.

The scenario under review envisions a far broader conflict than last June’s 12-day war, when the US and Israel launched strikes on the Islamic Republic. But some who better remember the recent Iraq and Afghan wars say it won’t just be “weeks” – but any major Iran action has the likelihood of becoming a much lengthier and bloodier than envisioned quagmire.

The report comes after Washington and Tehran resumed indirect talks in Oman last week – also as Israel is pressing for Iran to dismantle not only its nuclear program but also its ballistic missile arsenal – the same capability Tehran used to strike back at Tel Aviv in June.

Even as some White House officials have touted the idea of ‘limited’ strikes on Iran, akin to the swift and easy Venezuela operation which ousted Nicolás Maduro, Pentagon planners are being more realistic in admitting immediate Iranian retaliation would sustain the conflict, making it “more complex”.

From the heart of the Reuters article…

The planning under way this time is more complex, the officials said. In a sustained campaign, the U.S. military could hit Iranian state and security facilities, not just nuclear infrastructure, one of the officials said. The official declined to provide specific details.

Experts say the risks to U.S. forces would be far greater in such an operation against Iran, which boasts a formidable arsenal of missiles. Retaliatory Iranian strikes also increase the risk of a regional conflict.

The same official said the United States fully expected Iran to retaliate, leading to back-and-forth strikes and reprisals over time.

Trump of course ran on a campaign to end the forever wars and to not start any new ones, especially in the Middle East, where Washington has had a horrible and blood-stained track record. ‘Blowback’ also defined the period of the ‘global war on terror’ – as groups like ISIS arose in the wake of toppling Saddam Hussein and destabilizing places like Libya and Syria.

Whether Trump is pursuing diplomacy or using negotiations as cover for renewed military action remains an open question, and talks based on Oman are expected to continue this coming week.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the president has “all options on the table” and will decide on war based on national security interests, also at a moment Congress is as usual asleep at the wheel, despite a couple of efforts to reign in War Powers which have quickly failed.

As for the ‘option’ of a large-scale attack, Pentagon leadership is still cautious on this, given US assets are still being put in place in the CENTOM region, also as a second carrier – the USS Gerald R. Ford – is still en route from the Caribbean.

“Defensively, we’ve got to make sure, before we do anything [that US defenses are in order,” said Gen. Joseph Votel, former head of US Central Command. “So we are prepared for the inevitable response that comes back against US interests or against our partners.” The NY Times has also lately described the effort as “putting one’s house in order.”

Are US dialogue and peace efforts for real this time? Or another ruse to lull the Iranians into thinking it want suffer surprise attack…

Rubio on Iran:

We’re dealing with radical Shia clerics.

We’re dealing with people who make geopolitical decisions on the basis of pure theology.

No one’s ever been able to do a successful deal with Iran, but we’re going to try. pic.twitter.com/Au2sOygybZ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) February 15, 2026

Meanwhile, a note via Peter Tchir’s Academy Securities: 

“I do believe that before any kinetic action occurs, there would need to be greater consultation with regional allies. For now, the Arab Gulf countries are more comfortable with the weakened devil they know in Tehran than potential chaos in the region, a disruption in oil prices, and investor jitters, not to mention the probability that any Iranian retaliation is likely to include attacks on their soil.” – Linda Weissgold, Former CIA Deputy Director for Analysis

But again, this notion that a military campaign would just take “weeks” (and not months or even years)… is precisely the lie that was floated about the Iraq and Afghan interventions – both which turned into two decade plus nightmares.