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The largest absolute impact of the policy change would affect Latino immigrants, who would comprise more than 90% of U.S.-born people without legal status — what the study authors call “unauthorized” for brevity — in the country by 2050. However, the undocumented Asian population would experience the largest relative growth of any other immigrant group — with 41 “unauthorized” births per 1,000 Asians without legal status, compared to 17 births per 1,000 Latinos without legal status, according to the researchers. The researchers attributed the five-fold increase in “unauthorized” Asian births to the number of Asians in the country on student and work visas whose children would no longer be granted citizenship.
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Many Asian immigrants arrive to the U.S. on temporary student or work visas, and then it takes them another decade to get a green card, added study co-author Jennifer Van Hook, distinguished professor of sociology and demography at Penn State.
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To see how the policy change would impact immigrant groups, the researchers first estimated the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. by comparing immigration data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to legal residency data from the Department of Homeland Security. They also looked at census and immigration data from other countries, like Mexico, to deduce and adjust for the number of undocumented immigrants missing from U.S. government data.
The research team then modeled projections of the “unauthorized” and temporary nonimmigrant population in the U.S. to the year 2050, taking into account current age- and group-specific fertility, mortality and migration rates. They ran three scenarios: a status quo scenario, which defined all children born to immigrant and nonimmigrant parents as U.S. citizens, in accordance with the current law; scenario 1, which classified births as “unauthorized” if born to two undocumented parents; and scenario 2, which classified births as “unauthorized” if born to two undocumented parents, two nonimmigrant parents or a combination of the two. Scenario 2 models the language of the policy being brought before the Supreme Court, the researchers noted.
The researchers found that scenario 1 resulted in 5.3 million children being born to undocumented parents over the next 25 years, with 3 million of these children still living in the U.S. by 2050. Adding the children born to nonimmigrant parents in scenario 2 increased the number of “unauthorized” births to 6.4 million, with 3.4 million of these children staying in the country. Latinos would comprise 93% of the “unauthorized” U.S.-born population in 2050 in scenario 2, while the number of “unauthorized” Asian births would increase five-fold.
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The post Ending Birthright Citizenship Would Impact Asians and Latinos Most, Study Finds appeared first on American Renaissance.
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