For the first time in years, Italy, which was at the forefront of Europe’s general demographic decline, has reported that its population has remained largely stable over the last year. But, as more and more European countries struggle with declining birth rates, ageing populations and shrinking workforces, researchers are asking themselves whether babies or migration could best help re-balance Europe’s demographic equation?
For the first time in 12 years, Italy’s population decline has stabilized. Italy was once at the forefront of Europe’s general demographic decline, but migration to the country in recent years appears to be offering it a path out of that decline.
Official data from the Italian Statistics Bureau (ISTAT) indicate that the country’s resident population remained at 58.94 million on January 1 this year, virtually unchanged from a year earlier.
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Italy’s births dropped to 355,000 in 2025, down 3.9 percent from the previous year. The number represents a new record low since the country’s unification in 1861. Like its European neighbors, the country has turned to economic incentives to cushion the financial burden of raising a family.
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Italy has the Assegno Unico e Universale (Universal Child Allowance), which gives a monthly allowance for children under the age of 21 and without age limits for dependent disabled children. Parallel to this, as one of the countries that geographically stands guard at Europe’s external borders, Italy has seen a disproportionate number of irregular arrivals. Taking a hard-line stance has been the centerpiece of the government’s policies on migration and asylum.
However, achieving a demographic balance is more than just offering financial incentives or restricting migration. According to Bassanini, interventions that lie in balancing both birth rates and migration are key.
“Without reversing the decline of fertility rates, the country risks paying a price in the long run. Reversing the hard-lined migration policy, at least as regards labor migration, would be an alternative consistent with pro-fertility policies,” said Bassanini.
It is a strategy that the government in part seems to have taken on board. Since coming to power at the end of 2022, Italy’s government under Giorgia Meloni has continuously expressed hardline policies towards migration but has also sought to open up more legal routes into the country.
Italy has signed memorandums of understanding with countries like Bangladesh, to increase the numbers of legal routes into the country and has increased the quotas of seasonal work permits offered under its tri-annual “decreto flussi” (flows decree), which is meant to regulate how many seasonal workers can access jobs each year.
Organizations like the Italian Business Association (Confindustria) have also spoken out frequently about the need to train and fill jobs to keep the Italian economy on track. Some associations, like that in Milan have even started up their own programs to try and prepare more migrants for specific jobs needed in the Italian workforce.
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Bassanini’s OECD study shows that raising net migration to 0.61 percent of the population by 2030 could nearly offset the short-term impact of higher fertility on labor markets.
However, implementing such a policy means more than encouraging high-skilled workers to arrive. Countries must also retain migrants, integrate refugees and asylum seekers into the workforce, and recognize foreign qualifications.
Germany, for example, is aggressively recruiting foreign workers to plug gaps in its workforce. However, a survey of 50,000 migrants ages 18 – 65, who moved to Germany, found that one in four was considering leaving. Attracting people to move but not convincing them to stay negates the economic benefit of immigration.
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The post Italy: Population Stabilizes Due to Migration but Debate Continues Over How Best to Reset Europe’s Demographics appeared first on American Renaissance.
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