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New York is one of the few big cities that still publish crime statistics by race. It used to be common, but you’ll see why most places quietly stopped doing it.
This drab looking report is dynamite.
For every major crime there is a slick graph like this that breaks out percentages of victims, suspects and arrestees by race, including, of all things, American Indians over on the left.
As you can see in this graph for murder, blacks and Hispanics tower over everyone else, as percentages in all categories. The actual figures are in the table just beneath the graph. As you can see, blacks account for over 50 percent of murder victims, suspects, and arrestees. Whites are 7 percent of victims, 7 percent of suspects, and 5.5 percent of arrestees. Hispanics are in the mid-thirties for all categories.
Now, if the city were half black, 7 percent white and 35 percent Hispanic, it would mean that all races were victims and perpetrators at about the same rates.
But that’s not the case. The NYPD report includes the latest population figures for the city, with whites at about 31 percent, blacks 20, Asians 15, “Others” at 5.4, and Hispanics at 28.4 percent.
With this information, we can calculate what are called odds ratios, or how likely people of different races are to commit violent crimes, compared to whites.
As we saw earlier, NYPD reports race of suspect and of arrestee. Race of suspect is just a guess, but you have to have pretty strong evidence to make an arrest, so this is the better indicator of people who commit a crime.
Here are arrest rates for four major violent crimes, expressed as multiples of the arrest rate for whites. Let’s start with the four colored columns on the left for murder: white for white people, black for blacks, brown for Hispanics and yellow for Asians.
The white arrest rate is set to one, and the rates for other races are calculated as multiples of the white rate. This graph shows that last year, blacks were arrested for murder at 15.5 times the rate for whites, Hispanics at 7.1 times, and Asians at 0.8 times. That means Asians were 20 percent less likely than whites to be arrested for murder.
Look at the odds ratios for other crimes. A “shooting” means someone fired a gun and hit someone but didn’t kill him. A black is 98.3 times more likely than a white to be arrested for a shooting. This is a staggeringly high multiple. There are very few things — good or bad — that one race of people is even 10 times more likely to do than another race, and 100 times is pretty much unheard of. Hispanics are 35 times more likely than whites to be arrested for shooting. Look at the arrest rates for rape and robbery. Rape is more evenly distributed among races, with blacks “only” 10 times more likely than whites to be arrested for it, and Hispanics 7.1 times. Robbery has long been a black specialty, with blacks 21.6 times more likely to be arrested for it than whites. Hispanics are arrested at 10 times the white rate.
Are blacks really 15.5 times more likely than whites to commit murder? Many murderers are not arrested, and some people arrested for murder didn’t do it, so that number isn’t exact, but it’s as close to reality as we are likely to get.
Some people think maybe white killers are clever and avoid arrest. Actually, clearance rates are higher when whites commit murder. First, they are more likely to have conventional motives for killing someone and thus become plausible suspects. If you step on a white guy’s shoe, he isn’t likely to pull out a gun and shoot you, and that kind of impulsive stranger-killing is the hardest kind to solve. Also, whites are more likely to cooperate with the police.
Some people argue that arrest rates can’t be trusted because cops are racist. They allegedly round up blacks and Hispanics and let whites go free. There are lots of reasons to reject that argument, and here’s a good one: victimization rates.
On the left, you can see that black New Yorkers are 11.5 times more likely than white New Yorkers to be murdered, and Hispanics are 5.4 times more likely. It’s mostly blacks and Hispanics killing each other, and the victimization rates are not even higher compared to whites because blacks and Hispanics are more likely to kill whites than the other way around. And look at the victims of shootings. The rates are sky-high for blacks and Hispanics because they mostly shoot and wound each other. A lot of this is pure impulse violence, to which whites are less prone. Robbery, on the right, is interesting. Although Asians are only 1.7 times more likely than whites to be arrested for robbery, they are nearly four times more likely to be victims. This is probably because many blacks and Hispanics rob them — especially Asian women. Blacks and Hispanics also rob whites, which brings their own victimization multiples well below their arrest multiples.
Speaking of victims, let’s go back to the NYPD graph for rape.
In the “white” row, second from the right, you can see that the blue column in front, for percent of victims, is about twice as high as the purple and white columns, for suspects and arrestees. This means whites are about twice as likely to be raped as rape someone. Black and Hispanic men are certainly raping women of their own races, but they also rape white women, thus raising the white victimization rate.
Arrest figures are very good indicators of who is committing crime in New York City. What would the place be like if all eight million New Yorkers were white, and they committed crimes at exactly the same rate as the whites living there now? This graph tells you.
The blue dotted line is the level of crime in the city in 2024, and the blue bars are the percentage of the current total of crime there would have been if the city has been all white. Murder would drop 82.3 percent to just 17.7 percent of the current level. Shootings, which we saw earlier were overwhelmingly black and Hispanic, would practically disappear. Rape would still be a problem, but at only 29.1 percent of the old rate, and robbery would be down 87 percent.
Pretty dramatic decreases, aren’t they? Imagine how different life in the city would be. For one thing, all 133 restrooms in the subways would be open. Now, 75 of them are closed, because if they were open, New Yorkers would rape people, do drugs, or live in them.
Credit Image: © Richard B. Levine/Levine Roberts via ZUMA Press
Those restrooms were built for civilized people.
And by the way, the NYPD releases this report every year. Have you ever seen it mentioned in the New York media — or in any media? Clearly, there are people who would rather you didn’t see it. Can’t have people getting ideas, now, can we?
The post How Much Crime Would There Be In an All-White NYC? appeared first on American Renaissance.
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