Zohran Mamdani’s democratic socialist policies are a hit with affluent white voters. But the surging mayoral candidate trails Andrew Cuomo among New Yorkers he says his plans will help the most.
Most polls have shown the upstart candidate lagging the former governor with Black and Latino voters. And with the Democratic primary a week away, political leaders from those core constituencies are dialing up their support of Cuomo as Mamdani’s core base — younger, farther to the left, whiter — flock to early voting booths to crown the 33-year-old lawmaker the next executive of New York City.
The dynamic is a microcosm of a nationwide divide in the Democratic Party. In 2024, younger lefty voters expressed open hostility toward Kamala Harris over her stance on the Israel-Hamas war. And in the two previous election cycles, voters of that ilk broke for Bernie Sanders while those over 45 — most crucially Black voters in the South — went strongly for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.
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“African-American voters have historically been more moderate to conservative than a lot of people really account for,” said Basil Smikle Jr., who once led the New York State Democratic Party. “It’s a vote tied to more mainstream politics and politicians, and you will see a higher turnout among those voters compared to younger ones.”
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Former Mayor Bill de Blasio, who ran on an income inequality platform like Mamdani, trounced the competition in 2013 by assembling a multiracial coalition that split the Black vote with Bill Thompson, who is Black. Eight years later, Eric Adams narrowly won the city’s first ranked-choice primary with barely any white support at all, anchoring his coalition to Black and Latino voters in the outer boroughs to become New York’s second Black mayor.
Mamdani’s campaign said his pledge to freeze the rent for rent-stabilized tenants and offer free childcare to kids aged 6 weeks to five years has been resonating with older voters in Black and brown neighborhoods. And he has been chipping away at Cuomo’s dominance with nonwhite voters by speaking at Black churches and earning the backing of prominent officials representing Latino and Asian communities.
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A May 28 Emerson College survey that solidified Mamdani as the clear second to Cuomo found them tied with white voters likely to participate in a Democratic primary. But in the first round of voting, Cuomo beat Mamdani 42-14 with Black voters, 41-16 with Hispanic or Latino voters and 27-19 with Asian voters. As the rounds progressed, Mamdani pulled ahead of Cuomo among white voters and closed the gap with Asian voters.
By the last round, however, Cuomo won Black voters 74-26 and Hispanic or Latino voters 65-35, reflecting the essential role these blocs have long played in New York City Democratic contests.
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