The Faktum Project has written why it believes the Visegrád Four is bound for a resurgence in the wake of Karol Nawrocki’s presidential win in Poland.
The V4 alliance is made up of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia, but recently, the members have had a hard time finding common ground. One primary issue has been support for Ukraine. Hungary has been adamantly against sending troops and seeking peace from the start, while Poland has been an ardent supporter of a victory for Ukraine.
While Czechia has been a forceful supporter of Ukraine, comparing Russia to Nazi-Germany, Slovakia has just rejected a deal to support the latest sanctions package against Russia.
Both Slovakia and Hungary have been dragging their feet on sanctions, as they demand guarantees for some form of compensation in exchange for being cut off completely from Russian energy, which both countries have long relied upon.
Poland, under Tusk, and Czechia, under Pavel, have been much more keen on being dutiful members of the EU and Brussels loyalists, while the prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico, have been cheerleaders for national sovereignty.
As pointed out by Faktum, given these and other divisive topics, the “death of the V4” was a recurring theme in 2024 and early 2025.
Just after getting elected more than two years ago, Czech President Petr Pavel dismissed the V4 as little more than a “consultation forum.” At that time, Pavel insinuated that the alliance could recover were new governments to come to power in both Poland and Hungary.
“Prime ministers and parties can be voted out,” he said.
As it happened, the liberal Donald Tusk did come to power in Poland, but now his Civic Coalition (KO) has lost the presidential election to the conservative, PiS-backed Nawrocki, an event that Orbán has called “fantastically good news.”
This means the V4 has shifted a bit back together, and most definitely to the right. This, when just a year ago, there was speculation that Austria could replace Poland in the V4. Poland is still the country in the spotlight, especially when it comes to the Hungarian-Polish rift over Ukraine. But this is not hopeless.
“Karol Nawrocki’s pro-NATO stance could also help deepen security cooperation, while his more pragmatic and rational Ukraine policy could allow for further improvement of Hungarian-Polish relations. Although Hungary pursues a separate policy on Ukraine, it remains committed to NATO,” writes Faktum.
The portal emphasizes that if Tusk were forced to hold early elections, and a PiS candidate came to power, the V4 alliance would grow even stronger and enjoy more common ground.
Quoting Politico foreign policy analyst Jurij Stasiuk, the article writes that “‘if political sympathy develops between Warsaw and Budapest,’ it could also result in the restoration and strengthening of the unity of the Visegrad Group.”
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