Ethnic Germans are having fewer and fewer children, with new data showing that predictions of German minority status could become true much sooner than originally predicted.
Germany’s birth rate is plummeting, reaching a concerning 1.35 children per woman in 2023; however, the situation is even more critical for women with German citizenship, whose fertility rate has hit a 30-year low. The new data closely aligns with new predictions from Thilo Sarrazin, the former Bundesbank board member who authored the 2010 book “Deutschland schafft sich ab” (“Germany Is Abolishing Itself”). He now predicts that by 2070, 80 percent of births will be to non-German mothers.
The Federal Statistical Office’s data shows that only 677,117 children were born in Germany last year, a 2 percent drop from the previous year. This ongoing decline paints a stark picture for Germany’s future demographics, especially for German citizens.
For women with German citizenship, the fertility rate now stands at just 1.23 children, a level not seen since 1996.
Meanwhile, for women with foreign citizenship, the fertility rate is 1.84, which is close to replacement. However, there is a continued decrease for foreign women as well, which has been consistent since 2017.
Despite the falling birth rate and record deaths, Germany is seeing its population continuously increase due to mass immigration, which is radically shifting the demographic situation.
Ethnic Germans account for only about 40% of births, by 2070, 80% of births will be non-German
Thilo Sarrazin, the author of “Deutschland schafft sich ab” (“Germany Is Abolishing Itself”) sparked controversy this month with a revised edition of his bestseller.
As reported by Remix News, Sarrazin reflected on his earlier work in an interview with Czech media, noting that while he was broadly right in his projections, the scale and pace of immigration — particularly since the 2015 crisis — have outstripped his original calculations.
He noted that his demographic model had assumed annual net immigration of between 50,000 and 100,000 people, based on official forecasts at the time. In the decade since, however, Germany has averaged 500,000 new arrivals per year, a majority of whom come from outside the European Union and from predominantly Muslim-majority countries.
“Back then, I predicted that within a few decades, Germans would become a minority in their own homeland,” Sarrazin said. “But it will come much sooner.”
“While in the group of people over 65, 15 percent have a migration background, among 15-year-olds it is 45 percent, and among newborns it is over 50 percent,” Sarrazin said. “Ethnic Germans account for only about 40 percent of births. I quote from the 2020 yearbook of the statistical office. These are the figures that are decisive for what the German population will look like in 2070, given that we are only about two generations away from it.”
He predicts that by 2070, roughly 80 percent of all births will be to non-German mothers, with the majority being Muslim. “That is my estimate today, but… the situation could get even worse. For example, if another sudden wave of mass immigration comes,” he warned.
Policies to boost the birthrate?
Those living in Germany still want more children than they are having. Researchers have a variety of policy proposals and prescriptions to boost the birthrate, but falling birthrates are seen across the globe, not just in rich Western countries.
“The desire to have children remains constant at just under two, but the framework conditions for starting or expanding a family are not right for many,” Martin Bujard, research director at the Institute for Population Research, told Bild newspaper, while discussing the current figures.
“Uncertainty is poison for family planning – be it political or economic. Or, as is currently the case, both,” said Bujard.
Since 2022, many citizens put off family planning, “but from a certain age, too often postponement is no longer an option,” he warned.
The researcher said, “more support for families is needed – such as reliable childcare, all-day schools, and more housing for families. Simply paying more money, on the other hand, hardly leads to more births.
Regarding housing, there are many factors at work, including financial speculation and institutional investors, but one of the main factors is mass immigration, which has driven up housing and apartment prices, as well as rental costs due to the sheer number of people arriving.
In the new data release, regional differences highlight the severity of the issue, with Lower Saxony having the highest birth rate (1.42) and Berlin the lowest (1.21).
While the pace of this annual decline of births in Germany has somewhat slowed, the long-term trend remains deeply troubling.
The total fertility rate serves as a key indicator of demographic health, showing the average number of children a woman would have based on current fertility patterns. The latest figures suggest a significant challenge for Germany’s population sustainability.
The post Germans race towards minority status as birth rate crashes, best-selling author predicts 80% of all births will be to non-German mothers by 2070 appeared first on Remix News.
Remix News
