Labor has revised its net overseas migration forecasts upwards once again in the 2026 Federal Budget, and now admits it will be at least 55,000 higher than previously expected over the next two years.
The estimated net overseas migration (NOM) figure for the 2025-26 financial year is now 295,000, up from the 260,000 predicted in December, and 245,000 in 2026-27, an increase of 20,000 on the previous forecast.
Labor claims it will then fall to 225,000 in 2027-28, even though every forecast has been exceeded since 2022.
Added to the previous three years’ NOM of 305,000, 429,000 and 538,000, this means total net overseas migration will be at least 2 million under the Albanese Labor government by the next federal election, which is due by May 2028.
Treasury said on Tuesday the revised forecasts “reflects that migrants on temporary visas are departing Australia at lower rates than in the past”, but said “migration policy changes in this Budget will place downward pressure on NOM”.
“Arrivals of New Zealand citizens are also expected to remain strong, reflecting Australia’s relatively favourable labour market conditions,” Treasury said.
The government also revealed a two-year ban on temporary migrants buying established rental property will be extended until 2029, and promised to overhaul the points system to bring in younger and more educated permanent skilled migrants.
“The Government is investing $85.2 million to deliver faster skills assessments for migrant trades workers and to accelerate occupational licensing. Once implemented, these changes could cut the time taken to enter the workforce by up to 6 months and facilitate up to an additional 4,000 skilled trades workers into the workforce per year,” Treasury said.
“As part of this investment, Trades Recognition Australia will deliver a new program of skills assessments for onshore visa holders, ensuring their existing qualifications and practical trade experience are recognised for the purposes of gaining employment and meeting workforce shortages.
“The Government is also reforming the permanent migration points test, to select better educated, higher-skilled and younger migrants overall.”
Net overseas migration takes into account departures, including Australian citizens leaving the country, and over the past four years there have been about 2.5 million arrivals from foreign countries.
Header image: Left, right, Anthony Albanese pandering to Indian and Vietnamese immigrants (PMO).
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