Jordan Bardella has strengthened his position as the frontrunner for France’s 2027 presidential election, with new polling showing the National Rally (RN) president leading comfortably in the first round and defeating former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe in a second-round contest.
The May Odoxa political barometer puts Bardella at 32 percent in a hypothetical first round. Philippe, long seen as one of the strongest contenders from the Macron-aligned camp, has fallen to 17 percent, down four points since March. He is now only one point ahead of far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has risen to 16 percent after officially announcing his candidacy last month.
The figures mark a sharp deterioration for Philippe, whose route to the runoff now looks less secure. In March, he polled at 21 percent, while Mélenchon stood at 12 percent. Bardella has slipped slightly from 34 percent, but remains well ahead of the field. Raphaël Glucksmann is at 11 percent, Bruno Retailleau at 9 percent, Éric Zemmour at 6 percent, Marine Tondelier at 4 percent, Fabien Roussel at 2.5 percent, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan at 2 percent, and Nathalie Arthaud at 0.5 percent.
The poll also suggests Bardella would currently beat Philippe in the second round by 52 percent to 48 percent, reversing the position recorded two months earlier, when Philippe was shown defeating Bardella by the same margin. The shift is politically significant because Philippe has often been presented as one of the few figures capable of blocking a National Rally victory in 2027.
Odoxa said Philippe has been hit by a combination of legal difficulties and a relative lack of political visibility since his re-election as mayor of Le Havre. His wider popularity has also declined. He has fallen to third place in Odoxa’s ranking of political figures, with 30 percent of respondents saying they support him or feel sympathy toward him, down six points since March.
Bardella, by contrast, tops the political personality ranking with 37 percent approval, ahead of his party colleague Marine Le Pen at 33 percent, and Philippe at 30 percent. Among National Rally supporters, Bardella commands 95 percent support, narrowly ahead of Le Pen at 93 percent.
It remains unclear who, Bardella or Le Pen, will run from the right of French politics, with the latter still under an election ban following a court ruling last year. Her appeal of the ruling is pending, with a decision expected on July 7.
Mélenchon’s resurgence is one of the other major findings of the poll. Although he remains the most rejected figure in the survey overall, with 69 percent saying they reject him, he has recovered strongly among left-wing voters. Odoxa says he has gained six points among left-wing sympathizers and is again their preferred political figure, ahead of Glucksmann, who had led him by a wide margin six months ago.
The poll also shows continued weakness for the French executive. Only 23 percent of respondents say Emmanuel Macron is a good president, while 76 percent say he is not. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu also fell two points, with 31 percent judging him a good prime minister and 68 percent disagreeing.
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