One Nation is leading in the polls in NSW a year out from the next state election across all age brackets, and is winning close to 40% of regional votes, a major new poll shows.
According to a Roy Morgan survey of 2,108 electors conducted between February 16 and 19, One Nation is now on 30%, up from 1.8% at the time of the last election, while Labor’s primary vote has fallen 12 points to 25%, and the Coalition’s is down 16.4 points to just 19%.
The Greens has increased its primary vote share from 9.7% to 12.5%, while other parties and independents have fallen from a combined 16.1% to 13.5%.
There is a large gender split, with One Nation winning 34% of male voters but only 26.5% of women , although it is still the second most popular party for female voters, and just 1% behind Labor.
But in contrast to federal polls where One Nation has mainly increased its lead among Gen X and Baby Boomer voters, the NSW poll shows Pauline Hanson’s party at 29.5% for the 18-34 age bracket, 28.5% for 35-49, 32% for 50-64, and 30.5% among those 65 and older.
A Roy Morgan poll of Victorian voters held in the days before the NSW survey also showed One Nation with similar levels of popularity across all age brackets.
One Nation is winning 25.5% of the vote in Sydney, just half a point behind Labor and 5.5% ahead of the Coalition, and is dominating on 38% of the primary vote in country NSW.
“If a New South Wales State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with much uncertainty about the results in many electorates,” Roy Morgan said.
“The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of next year’s New South Wales State Election.”
On a three-party preferred basis Labor is head of One Nation and the Coalition 44-33.5-22.5, and on two-party preferred is leading One Nation 52.5-49.5, and the Coalition 54-46, while the Coalition leads One Nation 50.5% to 49.5%.
Labor Premier Chris Minns is seen as preferred premier to Opposition leader Kellie Sloan 60.5% to 31.5%, with 8% unable to say or nominating someone else.
According to the most recent polling, One Nation is also leading in Victoria and is the second most popular party federally and in South Australia.
Header image: Left, Pauline Hanson. Right, Chris Minns (Facebook).
The post One Nation leading polls in NSW – winning 30% of young voters first appeared on The Noticer.
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