Poland will fare better than rest of world, says Polish economist on oil price surge

Despite the massive spike in fuel prices caused by the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, Polish economics professor Marcin Piątkowski believes that Poland can stand out from the rest of the world, writes Do Rzezcy. Poland’s oil conglomerate Orlen seems to agree.

Speaking on Polsat News, the economist and lecturer at Leon Kozminski University said, “Poland will be affected by this ongoing crisis just like everyone else, but less than everyone else.”

Addressing potential price increases for gasoline, oil, gas, as well as food products, the expert believes Poles will face a better situation than the rest of the world. “I think it will be much smaller. It could be a one-time shock, with our inflation rising by one percentage point,” he said.

“I believe that Poland will once again prove, as it has over the past 35 years, that we are an economy that is more flexible, more resilient to crises,” he continued. “One could even say anti-fragile, one that even relative to others benefits from shocks.”

Professor Piątkowski also took the opportunity to promote electric vehicles, given the current oil shock. “I think we should wait at least a little while. On the other hand, let this be a signal and motivation for many Poles to consider whether it might be worth switching to electric cars, which would ideally be powered by their own sockets, whether in an apartment building or at home. Then we wouldn’t be concerned at all about the situation in the Persian Gulf,” he told Polsat News.

Piątkowski also emphasized that the Polish government should not radically reduce petrol and gas prices.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has told press that fuel supplies in Poland are secured, while it has very little impact on the global scenario.

“I won’t allow anyone to profit from this critical situation. We have no influence on global fuel prices. A different Donald certainly has a real influence on what happens with fuel worldwide. So please direct your questions there, not to the humble Polish Donald,” Tusk said.

Concerns have nevertheless been raised after news that Saudi Aramco is cutting production at two of its oil fields due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Crude oil comes to Poland primarily from Saudi Arabia, with the remainder coming from countries such as Norway, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Nigeria.

Saudi Aramco is a key strategic partner of Orlen, Poland’s state-controlled multinational oil and gas conglomerate, notes Do Rzeczy. It supplies over 45 percent of crude oil to the Polish company’s refineries. The cooperation includes long-term crude oil supplies. The Saudis also own a 30 percent stake in the Gdańsk Refinery, which is part of the Orlen-Lotus merger finalized in 2022.

Orlen has issued a statement to press that no deliveries are currently at risk. “Currently, oil deliveries are being carried out according to schedule and are not at risk in any way. Orlen is constantly monitoring the development of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on commodity markets and maritime transport routes,” the Orlen press office said.

The Orlen Group operates refineries in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Lithuania, operates retail operations in Central Europe, and produces oil and gas in Poland, Norway, Canada, and Pakistan. It also produces energy, including renewable energy sources, and distributes natural gas, notes Do Rzeczy.

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